World Politics · resolved market
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 0–5 years in prison?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8acc5e610026dddf2464bc65d88bda00288f9969659d049909584b6b7ace829f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 4c | 181,775$7,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,230.04 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…6c77backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 3c | 6,070$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +1,655.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 5,881$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.7 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 5,572$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes | 3c | 3,468$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 0c | 3,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…756ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,094$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,737$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.36 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9863…c3e0backed Yes | 4c | 2,062$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 7c | 1,745$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,488$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…d411backed Yes | 12c | 1,329$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,141$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…3157backed Yes | 6c | 1,095$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…5c3dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 984.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…d593backed Yes | 7c | 955$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 5c | 933.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 5c | 885.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c5…4d00backed Yes | 3c | 784.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44d0…443abacked Yes | 5c | 695$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43d…df8ebacked Yes | 4c | 680.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 7c | 660.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 526.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…56f1backed Yes | 4c | 496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0287…6fdbbacked Yes | 4c | 493$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 412.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 8c | 397$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 6c | 390.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 4c | 384.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…3958backed Yes | 7c | 352.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148a…d483backed Yes | 7c | 341.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 300.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 278.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 5c | 277.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 276.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…82b2backed Yes | 14c | 271.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…60b4backed Yes | 8c | 244.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…cc76backed Yes | 11c | 225.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 220.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 206.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…e6babacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf5…54b9backed Yes | 12c | 167.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898c…d848backed Yes | 11c | 152.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 138$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 95.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 0–5 years in prison?this page
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 15–20 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?No won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?Yes won
- Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to no prison time?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.