Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38905cbacd7797c948b74fd408cd3bc6701e18e2932455b7e1b4f14875ee20d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 57c | 6,004$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.76 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 39c | 5,605$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416.91 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…3e9fbacked No | 2c | 4,086$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 3,810$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 78c | 2,909$2,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.92 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 57c | 2,695$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.65 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 30c | 2,093$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.67 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 41c | 2,088$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.23 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 41c | 2,018$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.87 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed No | 71c | 1,841$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.95 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 49c | 1,787$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.41 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 67c | 1,519$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,187$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked No | 32c | 1,080$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.86 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 53c | 947.28$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 44c | 903.1$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 60c | 871.16$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.63 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 9c | 840.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 64c | 826.92$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.59 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 44c | 800$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.21 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 67c | 669.19$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 6c | 648.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 65c | 618.75$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 600$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 44c | 576.38$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 561.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…acc9backed No | 5c | 550.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 47c | 522.39$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.89 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked No | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 50c | 495.74$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.87 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d03…100ebacked No | 62c | 422.76$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d46…c336backed Yes | 32c | 416.4$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.95 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 33c | 402.58$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked No | 6c | 397.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…27dfbacked Yes | 51c | 390.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 50c | 390$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.7 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 50c | 389$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.39 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5d…0049backed No | 5c | 308.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 41c | 302.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.43 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 22c | 301.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…f158backed No | 67c | 300$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 30c | 283.92$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.14 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 37c | 281.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.64 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 278.13$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…7e6fbacked No | 4c | 276.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 272$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…7a52backed No | 44c | 270$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 65c | 264.46$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 62c | 254.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.63 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed Yes | 51c | 254.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 41c | 252.64$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.11 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 42c | 250.08$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 59c | 249$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.08 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6d58backed No | 47c | 237.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 49c | 224.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 46c | 218.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 47c | 211.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 66c | 211$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcb…e811backed No | 76c | 200.1$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 30c | 198.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4b…5d89backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c40…66a4backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 25c | 183.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…f831backed Yes | 56c | 178.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…b226backed Yes | 28c | 175.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…3f15backed No | 7c | 173.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 44c | 172.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 64c | 172.09$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.14 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc27c…d338backed Yes | 35c | 170.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 71c | 167$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…ab3abacked No | 6c | 163.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be3…afa3backed Yes | 64c | 156.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 49c | 154.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…e412backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa903…bcd2backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…e609backed No | 35c | 148.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…1c08backed No | 17c | 142.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 29c | 138.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 34c | 138$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 53c | 133.59$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…9f53backed Yes | 34c | 131.31$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 23c | 129.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 48c | 125.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 49c | 120.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 44c | 114.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 59c | 107.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 57c | 106.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.19 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.