Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6126c19a79b3b651eba40a06168df3ec9366a45cf05d716e8e877549c976358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 10c | 5,528$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.85 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 21c | 4,597$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.87 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 77c | 4,206$3,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.83 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 25c | 3,727$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.03 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 16c | 3,000$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.13 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 61c | 2,500$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.92 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 7c | 2,256$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 35c | 1,973$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.92 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,750$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.37 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 68c | 1,468$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.07 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,009$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 32c | 917.45$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.95 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 10c | 654.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked No | 72c | 600.02$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.01 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 22c | 535.21$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 31c | 450$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 69c | 450$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 24c | 400.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 382.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 10c | 381.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 70c | 350.35$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 63c | 350$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 29c | 327.39$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.29 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 321.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 14c | 290.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72d…9bd8backed Yes | 24c | 260$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 15c | 198.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…1e96backed No | 64c | 190.63$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6c…570fbacked Yes | 16c | 161.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 54c | 158$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d29…481dbacked Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 22c | 121.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…c89ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked No | 80c | 68.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…bf00backed Yes | 22c | 67.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…a875backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…fd86backed Yes | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…766fbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 34c | 42.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2b…ee8fbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 61c | 26.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89fc…f16cbacked No | 65c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…6e9ebacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…a852backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.