Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb10a77c39903f9bbdb87583253bcca165e9009e4dd24a4e5a1e8309e5019e10a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 25c | 8,135$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025.24 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 32c | 6,901$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.43 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 27c | 5,036$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.51 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 76c | 4,113$3,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.38 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 34c | 3,099$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.58 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 44c | 2,845$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.3 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 59c | 1,684$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 27c | 1,527$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.15 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 46c | 1,521$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.49 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59d…bb41backed No | 73c | 1,246$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 50c | 1,071$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.47 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 62c | 1,001$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 57c | 813.77$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.77 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 54c | 778.63$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 58c | 749.99$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 14c | 717.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 690.93$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…85f5backed Yes | 20c | 665.05$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…9b80backed No | 32c | 620.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed No | 45c | 602.08$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.08 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 65c | 553.63$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.77 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 61c | 544.37$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.48 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 28c | 542.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.21 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 48c | 529.28$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.31 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 48c | 527.87$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.98 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 30c | 510.48$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.88 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed No | 66c | 440.95$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…f7fcbacked No | 51c | 385.04$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 36c | 364.65$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.65 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 51c | 349.54$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 45c | 324.48$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.36 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…7477backed No | 56c | 321.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed No | 41c | 302.97$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 300.26$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 67c | 286.78$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.73 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 61c | 280.87$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.73 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 51c | 277$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.93 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 33c | 276.45$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.95 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 45c | 256.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 42c | 239.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.93 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked No | 44c | 224.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.13 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 6c | 221.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…bd86backed No | 47c | 211.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…2decbacked No | 58c | 210.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 47c | 193.36$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 55c | 180.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.68 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 56c | 178.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 61c | 159.94$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.18 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 59c | 159.67$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 46c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 43c | 142.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed No | 76c | 138.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes | 63c | 128$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…30abbacked No | 52c | 122.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 49c | 108.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 44c | 108.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 50c | 99.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a65…84d5backed No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 42c | 96.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 48c | 93.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 33c | 91.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 62c | 91.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 89.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 40c | 78.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…a80fbacked No | 48c | 73.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a6…8bc8backed No | 41c | 64.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x896f…b561backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…bf67backed No | 50c | 61.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eef…0e99backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 58.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 28c | 54.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…b576backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…9211backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…99dabacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 53cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 63c | 48.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 29c | 47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…5a31backed Yes | 56c | 44.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…086ebacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…8805backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…675fbacked No | 61c | 38.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…1ff2backed No | 35c | 32.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed No | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06f6…4505backed No | 52c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.