Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1e06fb76965f57ed7e262aa46e29ddf09fae83017a8100be4f12445bb329696

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,883 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in World Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb929…5581backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes	4c	6,000$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.46	40	45%18 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes	14c	2,449$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.64	87	41.4%36 W · 51 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa817…8d88backed Yes	17c	2,315$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked Yes	54c	2,200$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,179.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes	14c	1,071$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.36	86	30.2%26 W · 60 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0861…c24cbacked Yes	3c	1,053$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-78.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x101e…eaf4backed Yes	55c	958.29$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No	17c	940$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$780.2	73	35.6%26 W · 47 L	+15.3wins	+0.21per pick	15cpaid	+188.8%equal weight	67+0.16 edge/pick
0xdf00…0704backed Yes	27c	809.39$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.95	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	24c	806.78$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	347	26.8%93 W · 254 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x187a…87ccbacked Yes	2c	799.98$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	2c	700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	179	21.2%38 W · 141 L	+10.6wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+56.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked Yes	16c	656.25$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No	46c	615.41$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330.47	79	54.4%43 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed Yes	50c	524.93$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.97	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	519.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.23	1,431	10.1%145 W · 1,286 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa769…843ebacked Yes	68c	509.18$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.54	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	5c	404$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.59	167	6.6%11 W · 156 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf15…bdaebacked Yes	36c	372$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.66	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+113.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	12c	360.91$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.7	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	+6.4wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked No	75c	344.8$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.35	89	32.6%29 W · 60 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9357…81ddbacked Yes	11c	331.54$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes	70c	306$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.2	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+37%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	72c	271.05$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.81	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed No	69c	237$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.47	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.22per pick	56cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e9ebbacked No	71c	237$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.79	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdea…c050backed Yes	11c	233.87$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e0…f075backed Yes	9c	231.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes	31c	220$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-39%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes	37c	219.29$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.82	60	40%24 W · 36 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes	10c	203$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-49%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes	38c	199.99$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	146	32.2%47 W · 99 L	-8.6wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed No	69c	195$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.45	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	79c	191.91$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.47	322	55%177 W · 145 L	+14.3wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No	51c	187.3$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.26	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+1.9wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x325a…dbb4backed Yes	12c	170.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeebc…8fc9backed Yes	40c	160$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x616d…cce4backed No	60c	160$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked No	30c	153$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.1	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+3.3wins	+0.15per pick	40cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed Yes	70c	148$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.6	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes	64c	146.05$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.47	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No	30c	139$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.3	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Yes	20c	137$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.35	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	27cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes	76c	132.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	134	46.3%62 W · 72 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd8…9b58backed No	40c	125.45$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.45	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No	50c	121.87$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.69	49	59.2%29 W · 20 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7fe…d4f9backed Yes	69c	121.35$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No	18c	120.88$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.12	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+7.4wins	+0.31per pick	15cpaid	+216.1%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0xec55…6870backed Yes	36c	114$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.75	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.0wins	-0.37per pick	50cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes	31c	109$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.79	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.32per pick	35cpaid	+203.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes	12c	109$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb2…55a7backed No	70c	102.3$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.69	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed No	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	42	28.6%12 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No	30c	99$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.3	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	52cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	38c	93$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.08	1,318	43.9%579 W · 739 L	-26.8wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a4…e7b3backed Yes	24c	86.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No	61c	80$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.4	90	50%45 W · 45 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777e…d384backed Yes	68c	80$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.1	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	62c	78.55$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.96	67	40.3%27 W · 40 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x894d…bf38backed Yes	36c	70$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No	30c	68$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.6	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked Yes	65c	66.46$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.94	61	39.3%24 W · 37 L	-3.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked No	58c	64.49$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.09	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes	22c	61.26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	314	43.9%138 W · 176 L	-12.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed No	69c	59$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.29	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes	31c	57$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No	45c	55.47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.78	172	27.9%48 W · 124 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9760…24a5backed No	70c	54.83$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.69	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	68c	52.28$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.86	1,022	28%286 W · 736 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	35c	52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	563	14.6%82 W · 481 L	-39.3wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No	65c	49.41$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	203	28.6%58 W · 145 L	-11.4wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed No	73c	47.42$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.65	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x0cf2…423abacked Yes	74c	45.66$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.79	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.0wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x23a5…2c53backed Yes	32c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4e…8ae5backed Yes	31c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.34per pick	51cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7023…1fe5backed No	57c	40$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	51cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d1e…42e4backed Yes	67c	39.22$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	36c	38.96$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.01	260	52.3%136 W · 124 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5e…5c24backed Yes	34c	33.89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No	71c	31.67$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.3	57	28.1%16 W · 41 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+90.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	74c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	316	35.1%111 W · 205 L	-11.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	40c	28.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	367	42.5%156 W · 211 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28a…d195backed Yes	70c	28.57$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	69cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe515…525ebacked Yes	67c	27.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.33	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd992…96c0backed No	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No	71c	24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	82	52.4%43 W · 39 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No	75c	20.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.02	293	9.2%27 W · 266 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…8085backed No	69c	19$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.89	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda9f…2928backed No	65c	19$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.71	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b5…4806backed Yes	71c	16.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.71per pick	71cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?this page
Will Franco Parisi endorse Jeanette Jara for President of Chile?No won
Will Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event