World Politics · resolved market
Will Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2ae38d18007cd17bcf9fd0cafad7a6e0961878bc434d74b1c9b13456480a237
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,945
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb929…5581backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 41c | 2,787$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 79c | 2,449$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.35 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…c24cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,206$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 17c | 871.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…55a7backed Yes | 68c | 826.17$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 80c | 709.25$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.95 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed Yes | 52c | 620.05$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…eaf4backed Yes | 59c | 523.43$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.02 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 481.56$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bdaebacked No | 50c | 457.94$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 61c | 415.14$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.14 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 3c | 382.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 72c | 366$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 28c | 343$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 38c | 309.03$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 40c | 291$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…9b58backed Yes | 34c | 290.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes | 51c | 207.29$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…457bbacked Yes | 60c | 197.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 170.38$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…758bbacked Yes | 60c | 161$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 39c | 161$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 153.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d8…49b9backed No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…7f19backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 20c | 133$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…e68dbacked No | 28c | 132$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 46c | 126.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 72c | 117$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 60c | 116$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 17c | 111.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 41c | 103.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…4536backed Yes | 60c | 95.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9357…81ddbacked No | 17c | 83.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…376abacked Yes | 52c | 76.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 21c | 71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Yes | 56c | 67.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 79c | 63.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 53c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…6870backed No | 60c | 57.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.37per pick | 50cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1866…91a7backed Yes | 27c | 55.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 59c | 50.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…1307backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 40c | 49.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 32c | 45.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2581…d352backed Yes | 58c | 44.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…17e3backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 28c | 41.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 51c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…24a5backed No | 78c | 35.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked No | 49c | 35.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…d384backed No | 75c | 30.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 61c | 29.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee27…370ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7023…1fe5backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd541…e652backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23a5…2c53backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 70c | 18.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?this page
- Will Franco Parisi endorse Jeanette Jara for President of Chile?No won
- Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.