TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$256,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$253,684

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,021 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No55c10,111$5,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,579.245127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes51c7,346$3,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,563.711741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No2c7,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.991358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ef…a0d8backed No1c6,679$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked No3c5,954$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b72…beddbacked No2c5,907$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.23825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e4…471abacked No1c5,535$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2515022.7%34 W · 116 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No28c5,430$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.2715650%78 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62a…c2c7backed No44c4,500$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,98030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c3,385$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.791,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No9c3,339$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.5111850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x1bbe…1559backed No43c3,121$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.731330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2211…f15bbacked Yes74c3,106$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.67875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No45c2,983$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,341.2354934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed No31c2,950$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.882128.6%6 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x567d…f927backed No68c2,800$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,900333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes63c2,722$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.497650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a34…47e9backed No26c2,697$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.781931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes40c2,241$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No2c1,896$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.541357.4%10 W · 125 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked No7c1,726$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes58c1,660$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.8213525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a9…79bbbacked Yes64c1,649$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aff…c594backed Yes29c1,559$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes21c1,513$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.892030%6 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,496$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9616616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed No2c1,457$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.765036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes47c1,449$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.4326139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c1,418$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.952344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes31c1,400$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.524736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No10c1,337$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7115014%21 W · 129 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2094…26e6backed No5c1,272$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes42c1,264$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735.4918216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb4…5071backed No1c1,156$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a1…4739backed No70c1,145$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No16c1,106$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5731635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No71c1,091$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.143666.7%24 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d6a…3ae9backed No5c1,084$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked Yes49c1,062$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.672528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…0327backed No1c1,033$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No47c971$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.371127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1a…baf0backed No27c947.19$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-40.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd93d…0095backed Yes36c935.82$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes34c900$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5912454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc981…a75dbacked No38c865.6$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.855715.8%9 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba60…b77fbacked Yes47c858.67$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3e…1598backed No1c825.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02e8…d63ebacked No27c800$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.2825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No3c779.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1717921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12e2…85b7backed Yes53c760$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+87.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc99c…846bbacked No61c756.39$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.9366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c738.54$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.2388448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No43c697$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2901…f4d6backed No66c679.16$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.92540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes57c675$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes53c637$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cab…f7c2backed Yes47c622.63$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+213.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5537.5%4 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb6…cfe8backed No46c592$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.321010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa5fd…4305backed No7c590.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked No47c585$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.95850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked No2c562.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.094015%6 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x949f…b038backed No8c538.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No4c506.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.82614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes56c503.36$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.6728434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30f…9505backed Yes47c500$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes56c499.99$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22238023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c2…448abacked No4c486.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00fe…3c98backed No59c469.46$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No3c456.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0228430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…1cf3backed No5c454.37$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes76c437.9$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed No29c421$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.092657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No4c407.54$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.441494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes40c405.8$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.178943.8%39 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244042.5%17 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes71c400$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No4c396.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.019418.1%17 W · 77 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+40.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c73…c894backed Yes72c395.44$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x638a…e7d6backed No8c362.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6144…2fffbacked Yes28c354.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+68.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc4…5180backed No9c345.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No25c333.76$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.324916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd84…7b14backed No24c330$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x948b…df38backed No7c330$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c91…e891backed Yes40c302.5$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe336…44dcbacked Yes56c300$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No8c298.08$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.524110.8%26 W · 215 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked No21c285.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.536934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No29c280.34$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.934740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes53c277$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.191030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes54c268$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes54c265$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…ada0backed No57c264.49$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.313565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No51c260$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.4520051.5%103 W · 97 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No21c241.36$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6916834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x690b…eb44backed Yes61c234.43$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No30c227.31$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ed1…cc85backed Yes71c225.1$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.12035%7 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f3…4956backed No32c216.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.