Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a9467b67e8371f7e9a318f6585c408417ee95fde2edf4a4b9c27b3ef006d8f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked No | 77c | 23,404$17,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,459.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 22c | 18,000$3,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,933.61 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 24c | 4,914$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,290$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.84 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 20c | 1,996$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed Yes | 14c | 1,111$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 14c | 1,065$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 20c | 1,055$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,019$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 798.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 793.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 22c | 555.72$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.95 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 551.74$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…a37cbacked Yes | 25c | 533.34$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed Yes | 20c | 467$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 11c | 449.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 16c | 440$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 27c | 435$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 11c | 433.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 14c | 419.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 12c | 396$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6f…6890backed Yes | 26c | 392$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 71c | 380$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 18c | 372.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 16c | 346$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 79c | 344.99$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 13c | 327$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 16c | 315.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 7c | 299.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…0db0backed Yes | 14c | 299.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 11c | 289.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 13c | 284.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 79c | 269.49$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 79c | 268.92$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 12c | 261$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 19c | 260$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 74c | 260$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 16c | 247$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 244.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 76c | 243$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked Yes | 17c | 231$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 8c | 218$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 74c | 215$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 17c | 214.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6891…1146backed Yes | 16c | 207$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…92b3backed Yes | 17c | 205$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Yes | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…65dbbacked No | 80c | 203.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed No | 72c | 201$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 16c | 190$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x633c…0d68backed Yes | 19c | 189.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 16c | 186$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 79c | 184$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked Yes | 8c | 181$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 8c | 181$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked Yes | 16c | 180$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 28c | 179.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 21c | 179$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 26c | 179$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96e…1ea6backed Yes | 12c | 178$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…7c05backed No | 74c | 177$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 28c | 175$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…9426backed Yes | 7c | 171.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked No | 72c | 171.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 13c | 166.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 24c | 164$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…8c9abacked Yes | 27c | 163.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed Yes | 16c | 156$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 23c | 151$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 77c | 151$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 13c | 148.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 21c | 145.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 20c | 142$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 79c | 142$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 17c | 141$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 79c | 138$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.57 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 14c | 136.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 16c | 136$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 16c | 132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 12c | 128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bbd5backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 16c | 118$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 16c | 118$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed Yes | 10c | 115.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…5709backed Yes | 17c | 113$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked Yes | 20c | 112$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 21c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked Yes | 14c | 108.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 12c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked No | 76c | 99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Yes | 16c | 98.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in November 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in November 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.