Token Launches · resolved market
Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235a75375392a790e6dc1078f5b44d7cef637496fdf5ddad5851b7a94b769380
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,335$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 3c | 2,112$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…bd43backed Yes | 64c | 1,559$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes | 4c | 1,495$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 35c | 1,275$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.35 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…468bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,233$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…4bdebacked Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…dbe1backed Yes | 3c | 701.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 619.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…a634backed Yes | 18c | 575.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 540$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecf9…94d7backed Yes | 3c | 466.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 15c | 465.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 419.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 17c | 390$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 35c | 380.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9190…294dbacked Yes | 3c | 360.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3419…58f3backed Yes | 3c | 314.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…29f1backed Yes | 4c | 270$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 14c | 201$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…0613backed No | 73c | 190$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 16c | 183$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 64c | 180$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 138.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…f472backed Yes | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 64.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 79c | 51.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 24c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.