Token Launches · resolved market
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972827b5a8aa3dc290e131fb8510ecd0ec26496c39347276515190e8a65f8d43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $219,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 69c | 15,228$10,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,662.39 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…4c26backed No | 71c | 10,558$7,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,019.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 18c | 8,979$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9763…a292backed No | 71c | 7,060$4,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 36c | 6,568$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,231.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…6246backed Yes | 27c | 4,250$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 69c | 3,511$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Yes | 29c | 3,500$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.74 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…9362backed Yes | 7c | 3,258$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +93%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10c…d845backed Yes | 46c | 3,137$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 38c | 3,011$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.14 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked Yes | 17c | 2,892$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…0903backed Yes | 37c | 2,721$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed No | 68c | 2,635$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.83 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.06 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd811…2673backed Yes | 31c | 2,411$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…3f1fbacked No | 79c | 2,275$1,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 26c | 2,250$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.95 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…2085backed Yes | 47c | 2,249$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…7d6abacked Yes | 28c | 2,182$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f9…ba4dbacked Yes | 33c | 2,116$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 28c | 2,111$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d1…2bb3backed Yes | 24c | 2,074$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,005$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.6 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 24c | 1,931$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.29 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 14c | 1,906$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.12 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce35…75aabacked Yes | 24c | 1,870$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4e…c1fcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,800$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 33c | 1,772$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.06 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,662$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.18 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 32c | 1,539$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 1,499$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes | 14c | 1,446$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…99cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,249$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.61 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…ec22backed Yes | 25c | 1,210$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c1…9146backed Yes | 24c | 1,199$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 21c | 1,193$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.29 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…b794backed No | 35c | 1,187$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247b…6610backed Yes | 32c | 1,125$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.58 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed Yes | 34c | 1,050$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 31c | 1,029$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.05 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 17c | 901.07$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 874.79$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 79c | 867.01$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.91 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes | 14c | 800$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea07…d8b7backed Yes | 34c | 800$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…3046backed No | 64c | 783.26$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…8825backed Yes | 30c | 733.42$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…4bdebacked Yes | 28c | 713.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8ac4backed Yes | 28c | 710$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd3…7e19backed Yes | 28c | 700$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 700$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…7865backed No | 71c | 699.99$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04fc…0e31backed No | 67c | 699.99$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d7…554ebacked Yes | 3c | 669.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…2266backed Yes | 25c | 632$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked Yes | 7c | 620.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked No | 76c | 614.99$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 600$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 63c | 577.46$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…29f1backed Yes | 21c | 569.25$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Yes | 13c | 560.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 79c | 560$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 554.4$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c0…1027backed Yes | 36c | 550$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 77c | 534.01$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 53c | 530$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.1 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 77c | 514.45$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.03 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…ee87backed Yes | 13c | 509.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…6531backed No | 66c | 499.96$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…c068backed Yes | 25c | 493.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…851cbacked No | 62c | 483.15$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2a…490dbacked Yes | 9c | 481.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 14c | 470$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…3d69backed Yes | 25c | 470$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 55c | 440.94$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.24 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 23c | 437.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes | 38c | 435.04$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 23c | 431.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…772cbacked Yes | 32c | 410.07$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e4…d18fbacked Yes | 14c | 408.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…8d53backed Yes | 30c | 390.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…d05dbacked Yes | 26c | 388.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 5c | 386.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…9f1cbacked Yes | 26c | 378.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a79…d6cebacked Yes | 14c | 364.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…fe1bbacked Yes | 36c | 355.02$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.55 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 26c | 349.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…bd43backed Yes | 19c | 348$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…b035backed Yes | 29c | 346.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?this page
- Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.