Token Launches · resolved market
Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c5285a1f16c1964e3bbc427f7ad42f272194b7c252b4b42d16a34f891de91e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $121,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 1c | 32,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…bd43backed Yes | 30c | 5,435$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed Yes | 10c | 4,935$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc302…f388backed Yes | 14c | 3,539$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f9…ba4dbacked Yes | 16c | 2,833$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3eaebacked Yes | 8c | 2,568$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c2…468bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd811…2673backed Yes | 10c | 1,553$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37f0…6edabacked Yes | 2c | 1,454$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 36c | 1,410$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.69 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…dbe1backed Yes | 6c | 1,292$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked Yes | 14c | 1,170$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,143$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 79c | 1,131$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 5c | 915.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 7c | 876.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed Yes | 4c | 821.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…85d4backed Yes | 10c | 715$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4e…c1fcbacked Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 10c | 640.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa909…6badbacked Yes | 7c | 608.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa795…29f1backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea5…3fdabacked Yes | 12c | 565.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 545.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed Yes | 13c | 519.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…6504backed No | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…4bdebacked Yes | 10c | 486.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…c71fbacked Yes | 15c | 460.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 12c | 393.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 3c | 363.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…31c9backed Yes | 6c | 363.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 59c | 332.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.24 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea11…c16abacked Yes | 14c | 301.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 8c | 298.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked Yes | 7c | 295.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…b49fbacked Yes | 8c | 278.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed Yes | 5c | 258.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…3627backed Yes | 6c | 240.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed Yes | 21c | 235.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 6c | 227$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 7c | 223.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 74c | 215.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 6c | 209.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 204$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…0ba9backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6225…5eb6backed Yes | 6c | 197.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fa…9a8cbacked Yes | 8c | 197.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…384dbacked Yes | 17c | 190$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 10c | 163$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…2d81backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…ef03backed Yes | 70c | 137.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 15c | 135.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…4191backed Yes | 14c | 124.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 10c | 112.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 45c | 111.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e5…fa42backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 13c | 99.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 83.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…4e00backed Yes | 19c | 79.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 16c | 74.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 36c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9832…6e4dbacked No | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.