Token Launches · resolved market
Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb779d1e073a2bbf0a0a4b0bedf40d4760801f35677e53141d28f6387a846a3c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 8,291$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,460$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…b18fbacked Yes | 32c | 3,600$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,547$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 62c | 1,346$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.15 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 78c | 1,091$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.28 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked Yes | 47c | 1,058$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 69c | 1,057$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.93 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed Yes | 14c | 980.23$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 63c | 926.04$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.49 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked Yes | 13c | 880$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed Yes | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2231…00ebbacked Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf74a…dad9backed Yes | 44c | 475$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb2…88cabacked Yes | 17c | 437.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 21c | 420.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed Yes | 11c | 348.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +507.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed No | 77c | 344.29$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed No | 65c | 283.79$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…509fbacked Yes | 39c | 274.86$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8e…b1c7backed Yes | 37c | 271.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +159%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…1440backed Yes | 25c | 255.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 247.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 30c | 243$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…ba8fbacked Yes | 11c | 240$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3cd6backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 11c | 195.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…645bbacked No | 65c | 188.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.65 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 29c | 157.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce35…75aabacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 11c | 149.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34e9…e6c7backed Yes | 49c | 100.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…adf7backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf4…2e25backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…8b82backed Yes | 17c | 78.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 76.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed Yes | 39c | 46.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…ec79backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch?this page
- Harmonix FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $50M one day after launch?No won
- Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.