TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,163
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,163 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf738…56bdbacked No53c1,473$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.314100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Yes40c1,392$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.23333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No61c1,076$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.64560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes16c1,066$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.561030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes32c1,042$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.797429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Yes47c1,033$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.51540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes39c1,024$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.361145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked Yes14c971$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.43850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes39c961$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No77c909$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.57742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked Yes16c852$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes4c845.08$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.772138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked No61c844$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.161127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed No56c817$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed Yes40c803$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes23c799$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick32cpaid+162.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No61c782$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No79c755$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.71580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No79c712$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.651936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes39c690$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes40c664$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No60c664$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+102.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed No60c637$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.8450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed No71c615.55$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes39c604$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.56540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed No60c602$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+116.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes40c584$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed Yes44c581$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.64944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes40c561$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.4944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes39c538$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.82862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed No61c523$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.97450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes39c497$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.83922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes16c490$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No71c482$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes13c481$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.53728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Yes13c463$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.19633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes15c449$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.351723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes19c425$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.821330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked No60c405$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes39c405$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No58c393.13$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.4819643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed No60c376$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+233.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No56c376$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.44933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes44c374$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.561533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed No60c372$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No59c369$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-45.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked Yes41c369$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.29633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No61c366$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.74540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No56c361$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.82666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed Yes4c343$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No61c327$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.53837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes16c327$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-71.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed No61c316$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.24666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No61c316$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.24955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes41c313$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes47c313$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.11540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63bc…571ebacked Yes5c312.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes16c296$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No60c275$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+78.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes44c259$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.961258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+40.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No59c258$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.83540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No73c247.1$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8266914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No61c245$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.55862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes39c245$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No61c236$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No61c236$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.04650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes39c236$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.04540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+49.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbe…93f6backed Yes11c220$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+85.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes10c218.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8349711.5%57 W · 440 L-17.8wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes15c210$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes43c210$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No61c205$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.951233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfa…4578backed Yes16c201$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No59c183.62$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.472055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c181.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8218310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes44c173$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa232…175fbacked No56c173$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+52.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes13c171$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.23742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes39c169$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9150%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed Yes39c164$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No61c141$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.991163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7170…ed44backed No60c135$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+55.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed Yes47c127$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes14c126$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes10c110.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4216020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed Yes44c110$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed No56c110$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes39c103$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.171030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5544…802abacked No48c94$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+69.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed No61c91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes43c88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes43c86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes39c71$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d8…4c30backed Yes39c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4883…ce56backed No57c70$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes52c69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.881421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-44.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes40c67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes43c57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511225%3 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed No48c57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.641050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+36.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5986…83e3backed Yes43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.