Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e40c0874cf8c3e27d678b5a610c1b91fba1b1ab6565d375e2777a740187722f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked No | 53c | 1,473$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 40c | 1,392$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed No | 61c | 1,076$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 16c | 1,066$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 32c | 1,042$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.79 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 47c | 1,033$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 39c | 1,024$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 14c | 971$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 39c | 961$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 77c | 909$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 16c | 852$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 4c | 845.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 61c | 844$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 56c | 817$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 40c | 803$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 23c | 799$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 32cpaid | +162.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 61c | 782$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 79c | 755$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 79c | 712$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 39c | 690$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 40c | 664$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 60c | 664$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed No | 60c | 637$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 71c | 615.55$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes | 39c | 604$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 60c | 602$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 40c | 584$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 44c | 581$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 40c | 561$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 39c | 538$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed No | 61c | 523$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 497$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 16c | 490$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 71c | 482$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 13c | 481$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 13c | 463$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 15c | 449$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 19c | 425$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 60c | 405$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 39c | 405$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 58c | 393.13$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed No | 60c | 376$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +233.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked No | 56c | 376$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 44c | 374$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed No | 60c | 372$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 59c | 369$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb862…5aaebacked Yes | 41c | 369$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 61c | 366$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 56c | 361$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 4c | 343$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 61c | 327$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 16c | 327$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 61c | 316$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 61c | 316$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes | 41c | 313$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 47c | 313$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…571ebacked Yes | 5c | 312.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 16c | 296$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 60c | 275$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 44c | 259$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 59c | 258$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 247.1$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 61c | 245$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 39c | 245$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed No | 61c | 236$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 61c | 236$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 39c | 236$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…93f6backed Yes | 11c | 220$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 218.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 15c | 210$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed Yes | 43c | 210$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 61c | 205$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 16c | 201$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 59c | 183.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 181.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 44c | 173$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…175fbacked No | 56c | 173$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 13c | 171$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 39c | 169$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 39c | 164$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked No | 61c | 141$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…ba67backed Yes | 47c | 127$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 14c | 126$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 110.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed No | 56c | 110$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 39c | 103$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked No | 48c | 94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 61c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked Yes | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 43c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 39c | 71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 40c | 67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed No | 48c | 57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.