Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34dd0a41a9cbe587a3595d092fd1e01e69527b4323d20e08235e21175fe7e99e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d2…3ba1backed No | 15c | 1,287$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 22c | 1,070$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 66c | 1,042$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.23 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 16c | 950$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 72c | 932$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 51c | 886$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked No | 28c | 863$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 16c | 765$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 16c | 730$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed No | 18c | 718$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 16c | 615$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed Yes | 71c | 590$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 16c | 577$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 49c | 552$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed Yes | 68c | 489$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 32c | 484$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 447.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 49c | 446$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 16c | 414$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 70c | 410$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 51c | 393$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 29c | 393$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 16c | 388$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2aa…4bbdbacked No | 5c | 386.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 16c | 344$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed No | 47c | 332$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No | 16c | 327$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 16c | 309$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 31c | 288$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 69c | 288$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 49c | 281$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 277.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 12c | 270$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +233.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 16c | 263$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 248.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 53c | 240$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…1eadbacked No | 7c | 234.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…93f6backed Yes | 18c | 220$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 9c | 217.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 29c | 197$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 47c | 195$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 18c | 175$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 16c | 174$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 79c | 154$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 53c | 151$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed Yes | 22c | 133$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 53c | 126$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 18c | 124.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 115.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…2923backed No | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed Yes | 51c | 115$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked No | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed No | 16c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 12c | 96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 83.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 21c | 82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 79c | 69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…2759backed Yes | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked No | 54c | 37.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 48c | 29.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d82…3d02backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fredrick Love win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.