Weather · resolved market
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe559358a21de06264bffb6a7de32e0d8843a6c6fd94dd97087501cece29cefde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 252 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 1c | 2,668$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 28c | 1,602$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.41 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 27c | 1,258$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 25c | 1,236$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed No | 28c | 1,197$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 11c | 1,183$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 27c | 1,154$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 73c | 1,149$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed No | 26c | 1,145$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 29c | 1,043$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.77 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked Yes | 71c | 1,040$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed No | 29c | 1,033$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 72c | 1,029$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 30c | 1,029$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 1,014$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 24c | 985$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 73c | 965$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 935.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 70c | 924$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked Yes | 74c | 913$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 25c | 904$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 28c | 888$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 70c | 885$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 72c | 872$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 74c | 865$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 26c | 865$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 73c | 864$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 72c | 861$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 859.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 815.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked No | 29c | 809$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.23 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked No | 75c | 808$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked Yes | 69c | 804$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 74c | 787$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed Yes | 72c | 781$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…d8e3backed No | 27c | 768$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 16c | 757.04$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.76 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed No | 26c | 756$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 71c | 737$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 60c | 733$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 30c | 730$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 72c | 725$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 70c | 724$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 71c | 710$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 704.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 72c | 704$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 29c | 702$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.58 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 74c | 699$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 71c | 689$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 29c | 689$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 26c | 686$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed No | 52c | 660$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 40c | 655$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 29c | 648$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 75c | 644$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 29c | 641.91$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 6c | 635.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed No | 27c | 633$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked Yes | 71c | 630$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 72c | 627$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.56 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 73c | 613$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed No | 26c | 609$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked No | 29c | 588$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 74c | 584$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 28c | 577$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 74c | 576$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 73c | 573$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.71 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 72c | 571$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.88 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 70c | 560$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 26c | 556$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 72c | 555$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 30c | 552$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed Yes | 73c | 542$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 30c | 540$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked No | 28c | 538$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked Yes | 75c | 534$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked No | 28c | 534$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 29c | 533$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked Yes | 74c | 532$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 26c | 532$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…c4abbacked No | 2c | 529.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked Yes | 74c | 529$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 25c | 528$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 26c | 528$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 71c | 518$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 72c | 509$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 71c | 507$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…0ec6backed Yes | 74c | 506$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 497.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed No | 28c | 486$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 27c | 477$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 29c | 472$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked No | 26c | 468$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 71c | 467$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…59d2backed No | 27c | 460$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 30c | 459$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc03…cd5cbacked No | 26c | 450$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 72c | 449$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.72 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…afc4backed No | 2c | 448.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 27c | 443$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?this page
- Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.