Weather · resolved market
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5926fd4979c2f84e00b6acd594375fe79c65b9f7ee97737d34d87bb7013eed6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51b1…7865backed Yes | 0c | 11,153$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,666$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…9739backed Yes | 3c | 4,271$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d6cebacked Yes | 1c | 4,261$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 2c | 3,387$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f49…231dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,422$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,382$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346b…3df4backed Yes | 5c | 1,268$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,177$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a4…4f8cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,064$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,046$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +140%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad08…1e64backed Yes | 1c | 1,044$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…bd71backed Yes | 1c | 1,009$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9a…6242backed Yes | 2c | 973.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef7…9da3backed Yes | 3c | 822$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 13c | 677$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed Yes | 13c | 592$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…26f9backed Yes | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…b918backed Yes | 5c | 440.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 5c | 402.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 13c | 309$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 13c | 270$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb916…ef69backed Yes | 6c | 256.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 13c | 98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?this page
- Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?No won
- Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.