Weather · resolved market
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12ef17b73e0f61ace79e3ab5f2e61ffc42777b8a286387eefd647dae306aab43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 383 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bc8…f753backed Yes | 55c | 6,183$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,385.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 78c | 4,724$3,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,672.37 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked No | 71c | 4,367$3,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed No | 16c | 4,040$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,387.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +460.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 26c | 3,492$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.92 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 17c | 2,642$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,181.2 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 49c | 2,062$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 24c | 1,858$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.93 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 39c | 1,823$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked No | 24c | 1,645$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.43 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +133.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7238…e52dbacked Yes | 74c | 1,459$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed Yes | 25c | 1,455$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.23 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 74c | 1,445$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 39c | 1,421$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 26c | 1,412$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked No | 26c | 1,335$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +193%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 17c | 1,324$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 62c | 1,312$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.56 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 26c | 1,264$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 23c | 1,256$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 20c | 1,194$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.49 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 26c | 1,184$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…3c8ebacked No | 24c | 1,164$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 43c | 1,153$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 76c | 1,153$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.51 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 75c | 1,113$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.93 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 62c | 1,110$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 9c | 1,077$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.39 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 22c | 1,047$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.64 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 76c | 1,037$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed No | 42c | 1,031$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 26c | 1,007$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked No | 26c | 1,005$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 57c | 983$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.69 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed Yes | 38c | 955$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked No | 62c | 942$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.96 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 23c | 938$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.26 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c824backed Yes | 40c | 929$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 78c | 927$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked No | 60c | 908$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 26c | 906$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed Yes | 54c | 905$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168e…aa56backed No | 26c | 902$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…0ec6backed No | 57c | 899$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.57 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 38c | 889$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 74c | 884$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 76c | 879$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed Yes | 20c | 877.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 74c | 872$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed No | 57c | 872$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 74c | 869$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed Yes | 43c | 861$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 28c | 858$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.78 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 48c | 851.13$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 19c | 842$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.57 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 24c | 811.91$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.04 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked No | 26c | 811$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 19c | 808.22$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.33 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…7040backed Yes | 40c | 806.1$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 75c | 804$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed No | 25c | 801$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 75c | 797.43$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed Yes | 74c | 797$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed Yes | 75c | 794$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 74c | 793$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 24c | 790$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 62c | 789$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 74c | 782$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 74c | 778$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 74c | 766$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 77c | 755$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 62c | 755$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed No | 21c | 748$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 747.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 75c | 728$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 26c | 725$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 23c | 718$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 26c | 718$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.46 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed No | 26c | 717$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 74c | 712$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 74c | 710$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 38c | 705$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 24c | 701$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked No | 26c | 688$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 28c | 684.96$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 25c | 683$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 24c | 676$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 26c | 675$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 77c | 675$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 26c | 674$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.76 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 13c | 672$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked No | 61c | 672$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 64c | 659.1$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.98 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked Yes | 38c | 658$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 26c | 655$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 74c | 653$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 42c | 652$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 26c | 650$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed Yes | 39c | 650$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?this page
- Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?Yes won
- Will 1600 to 1649 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will 1650 to 1699 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will 1700 to 1749 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
- Will 1750 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.