NFL · resolved market
Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0bb85d409f5e8c006bdccd9090898d207021a160ab94ffc9c91a9b3b6b8a545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3bc…43e9backed Yes | 20c | 1,012$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 20c | 876$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed No | 80c | 825$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 19c | 751$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 79c | 691$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 19c | 644$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…4441backed Yes | 20c | 600$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes | 19c | 592$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…0da3backed Yes | 21c | 579$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 19c | 546$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 19c | 502$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed No | 79c | 494$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 19c | 487$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 19c | 477$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 19c | 463$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 19c | 434$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed No | 71c | 424.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 19c | 421$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…704bbacked Yes | 19c | 403$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed Yes | 21c | 396$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed Yes | 19c | 379$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 80c | 367$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 79c | 363$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 29c | 346.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 19c | 332$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981e…d368backed Yes | 19c | 329$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes | 19c | 323$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…e109backed Yes | 21c | 293$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 79c | 290$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 19c | 283$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 19c | 272$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 19c | 228$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 79c | 226$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed Yes | 19c | 211.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 19c | 203$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes | 19c | 179$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 19c | 163.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 80c | 141$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 21c | 123$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 19c | 112$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 99.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed Yes | 21c | 98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…415abacked Yes | 31c | 61.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 19c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b53…5bc3backed No | 71c | 53.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?this page
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.