NFL · resolved market
Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce97653d5d3ff86ea94656f127cfbf2ea1bab6a8cafca55f605c6516eeaf3b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 79c | 30,276$23,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,412.67 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 32c | 18,256$5,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,841.99 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 11,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bd…01d0backed Yes | 44c | 1,605$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Yes | 66c | 946.18$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.7 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 39c | 371.53$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 330.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 82 | 13.4%11 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…35c6backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 230 | 24.3%56 W · 174 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 176$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 31c | 170.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.03 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 56c | 126$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 121.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 57c | 101.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 53.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 51.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 40.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…fe0dbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe215…1a71backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.