NFL · resolved market
Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342f07d0f160d8614a11880f812d68568419d5b1f7a606b3a422e08b90cc8482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed No | 76c | 32,034$24,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,690 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 32c | 18,828$6,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,024.91 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,372$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…9e76backed Yes | 32c | 4,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Yes | 31c | 999.96$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 12c | 612.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…ae59backed Yes | 28c | 353.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…e313backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…31a1backed Yes | 32c | 311.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36dc…5e08backed Yes | 32c | 246.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 188.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd03…06a0backed Yes | 35c | 143.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d6…f54ebacked Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed No | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1529…41e4backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 72c | 79.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 48.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…bb7abacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Yes | 35c | 36.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 69c | 14.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl?this page
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Divisional Round?No won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Super Bowl?Yes won
- Will the New England Patriots be eliminated in the Wild Card Round?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.