Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dcac4f3f778eb4924ea80165fb0ac2ebc8ccbe8de8c03e46b1d1c893866d9f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc771…e858backed Yes | 24c | 1,375$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked No | 65c | 1,341$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 76c | 1,282$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed No | 65c | 1,277$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 79c | 1,247$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed Yes | 35c | 1,222$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed Yes | 21c | 1,154$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…cd12backed Yes | 22c | 1,092$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed Yes | 21c | 1,072$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed Yes | 21c | 1,002$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 994.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 35c | 984$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked No | 78c | 969$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 77c | 967$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b82…1712backed Yes | 35c | 938$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 35c | 908$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 22c | 894$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 23c | 893$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 65c | 848$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +271%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e96…c895backed Yes | 22c | 812$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed Yes | 22c | 768$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 74c | 753$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c2…ca53backed Yes | 22c | 744$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 79c | 687$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed Yes | 35c | 645$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 22c | 645$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 22c | 632$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 14c | 617.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.54 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 78c | 612$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 79c | 611$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 21c | 592$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 79c | 592$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 21c | 587$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 21c | 575.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 65c | 574$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 9c | 570$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 79c | 545$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 79c | 531$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +257.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 22c | 527$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed No | 79c | 515$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed No | 65c | 509$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No | 78c | 508$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0337…8be7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 78c | 496$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 78c | 486$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 78c | 483$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 78c | 476$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 65c | 428$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 56cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed No | 78c | 423$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked Yes | 21c | 420$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed No | 79c | 401$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 79c | 371$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 36c | 366$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 35c | 364$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed No | 65c | 363$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked No | 78c | 343$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed No | 79c | 311$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes | 22c | 301$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked No | 65c | 297$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 35c | 294$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 78c | 285$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 65c | 284$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 64c | 282$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked Yes | 35c | 262$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed No | 64c | 255$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 35c | 223$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3359…2273backed Yes | 36c | 216$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234a…cbffbacked Yes | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 22c | 207$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 78c | 206$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 78c | 199$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 22c | 198$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 24c | 196$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 36c | 190$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 13c | 184.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 165$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 34c | 155.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 35c | 154$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 76c | 153$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 21c | 138.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…cf81backed No | 75c | 133.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 22c | 129$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 78c | 122$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…a320backed No | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…975ebacked No | 65c | 113$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 25c | 98.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked Yes | 36c | 98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 24c | 79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 73.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 64c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 65.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…fba2backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes | 36c | 61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed No | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 57.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?this page
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?Yes won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.