TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$61,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc771…e858backed Yes24c1,375$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked No65c1,341$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No76c1,282$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed No65c1,277$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No79c1,247$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.87580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed Yes35c1,222$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed Yes21c1,154$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes22c1,092$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes21c1,072$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed Yes21c1,002$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c994.35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.075327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa15b…200fbacked Yes35c984$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked No78c969$756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.18366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No77c967$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.41560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b82…1712backed Yes35c938$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3acc…973dbacked Yes35c908$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed Yes22c894$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes23c893$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.39616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-77.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No65c848$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+271%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e96…c895backed Yes22c812$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1897…c285backed Yes22c768$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No74c753$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.68666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes22c744$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No79c687$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed Yes35c645$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes22c645$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes22c632$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.04333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes14c617.27$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No78c612$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No79c611$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes21c592$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No79c592$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes21c587$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes21c575.16$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.78110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6576…f0abbacked No65c574$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes9c570$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.32744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked No79c545$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.99250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No79c531$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.512100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+257.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes22c527$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No79c515$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c09…28d0backed No65c509$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No78c508$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0337…8be7backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No78c496$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No78c486$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.92580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No78c483$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No78c476$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x465c…6e53backed No65c428$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick56cpaid+85.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa400…ec34backed No78c423$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked Yes21c420$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed No79c401$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.213100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No79c371$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes36c366$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9498…d950backed Yes35c364$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95cc…f215backed No65c363$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked No78c343$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.46560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed No79c311$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked Yes22c301$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked No65c297$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed Yes35c294$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed No78c285$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed No65c284$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed No64c282$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked Yes35c262$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No64c255$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…49f3backed Yes35c223$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed Yes36c216$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked Yes35c210$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes22c207$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No78c206$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No78c199$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes22c198$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.56580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes24c196$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3214…f00ebacked Yes36c190$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes13c184.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1535341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked No78c165$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes34c155.65$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6326318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes35c154$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe539…5345backed No76c153$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.72450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed No65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+60.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes21c138.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.216443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee8…cf81backed No75c133.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8132…a491backed Yes22c129$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No78c122$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No79c118$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb73e…975ebacked No65c113$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes25c98.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.916640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54af…415ebacked Yes36c98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes24c79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes23c74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c73.51$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2441736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No64c67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes22c65.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4517122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47c5…fba2backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-55.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes36c61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b02…cfc1backed No65c59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes29c57.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6229416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.