Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90b334638aecb0a61bca7d21deafe4a7f5c06f363d895971c252e37f8f9f6331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b05…6180backed Yes | 56c | 2,377$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…bc6dbacked No | 13c | 1,871$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,440$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 67c | 1,090$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,021$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed No | 80c | 945.65$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.1 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 35c | 914$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf7…0b92backed No | 6c | 889.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 72c | 880.05$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 877.94$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.02 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked Yes | 33c | 862$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 35c | 826$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 65c | 818$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked No | 60c | 810$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…358fbacked No | 65c | 793$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 694.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.59 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 69c | 663.15$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 67c | 603$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 8c | 600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 13cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes | 79c | 595.05$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.59 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 48c | 582.02$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 52c | 571.4$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 45c | 562.67$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.62 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc59…fdf0backed Yes | 63c | 557.13$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…dfc7backed Yes | 75c | 530$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 15c | 520.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 30c | 500.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 38c | 490$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 12c | 421$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…87bcbacked No | 48c | 418.16$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes | 33c | 415$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 57c | 400.43$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed No | 67c | 381$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 363.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 33c | 338$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 67c | 328$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 33c | 328$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e07…e66fbacked No | 15c | 323.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 40c | 318$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 67c | 308$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 33c | 308$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 67c | 306$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 65c | 305$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc27c…d338backed Yes | 33c | 304.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +159.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02e…2394backed No | 69c | 303.9$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35a…c452backed No | 6c | 276.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes | 33c | 271$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 33c | 268$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed Yes | 40c | 265$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 22c | 254.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…5899backed No | 29c | 249.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed No | 65c | 247$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 60c | 239$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 67c | 236$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 33c | 236$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…3239backed No | 46c | 230.31$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 15c | 230$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes | 33c | 216$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…144cbacked No | 47c | 213.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +243.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.3 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…5361backed No | 42c | 192.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…9f8fbacked No | 50c | 192.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…bd79backed No | 53c | 189.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19dd…8f24backed No | 54c | 185.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 33c | 177$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…7406backed Yes | 33c | 173$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x667f…8c3ebacked No | 65c | 172$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 164.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 67c | 162$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 12c | 159.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 72c | 152.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…60c2backed No | 66c | 151.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…78ddbacked No | 14c | 147.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 35c | 146$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed Yes | 40c | 143$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 35c | 136$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…f658backed Yes | 40c | 136$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed Yes | 35c | 134$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed Yes | 55c | 127.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 76c | 120.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 44c | 114.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e05…5f33backed No | 80c | 111.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b4…d098backed No | 29c | 104.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…350dbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b7…0edabacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3e…a9d2backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…b3f2backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 65c | 99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 97.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?this page
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?No won
- Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.