TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,682 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7b05…6180backed Yes56c2,377$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72e6…bc6dbacked No13c1,871$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c1,440$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.844117.1%7 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No67c1,090$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes63c1,021$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.253756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ca7…6149backed No80c945.65$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.12560%15 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed Yes35c914$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf7…0b92backed No6c889.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes72c880.05$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c877.94$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.0226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes33c862$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+114.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes35c826$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No65c818$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked No60c810$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8d6…358fbacked No65c793$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No15c694.91$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.595038%19 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa4da…f756backed No69c663.15$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.081258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No67c603$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5602…c12bbacked No8c600$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick13cpaid+249.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1b0…ce2cbacked Yes79c595.05$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.592969%20 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed Yes48c582.02$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.862540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…da69backed No52c571.4$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.821050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes45c562.67$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.626640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc59…fdf0backed Yes63c557.13$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2658…dfc7backed Yes75c530$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes15c520.39$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.39742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No30c500.97$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.154452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed No38c490$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.512634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No12c421$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.278510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc2…87bcbacked No48c418.16$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0cb…ab6abacked Yes33c415$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked No57c400.43$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No67c381$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+38.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c363.18$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.765327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes33c338$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…9ef2backed No67c328$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes33c328$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…e66fbacked No15c323.51$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes40c318$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.8580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No67c308$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes33c308$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed No67c306$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No65c305$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc27c…d338backed Yes33c304.68$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+159.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe02e…2394backed No69c303.9$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc043…eb1bbacked No69c300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c299.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.151432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35a…c452backed No6c276.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.84616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-36.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes33c271$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+50.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes33c268$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+66.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed Yes40c265$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1593100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+77.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No22c254.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.56864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf40a…5899backed No29c249.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed No65c247$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed No60c239$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No67c236$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes33c236$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d92…3239backed No46c230.31$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes15c230$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.82236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes12c230$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.252544%11 W · 14 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked Yes33c216$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde88…144cbacked No47c213.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17340%0 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1108247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+243.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.35352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbdad…5361backed No42c192.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d2…9f8fbacked No50c192.03$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca5…bd79backed No53c189.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19dd…8f24backed No54c185.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No60c180$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed Yes33c177$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1c…7406backed Yes33c173$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x667f…8c3ebacked No65c172$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No12c164.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.179115.4%14 W · 77 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-60.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed No67c162$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.54250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No12c159.6$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6110%0 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes72c152.26$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.711580%12 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7c0…60c2backed No66c151.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de7…78ddbacked No14c147.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes35c146$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+119.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes40c143$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes35c136$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+51.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes40c136$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed Yes35c134$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed Yes55c127.29$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.062564%16 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes76c120.78$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.939341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x365f…d215backed Yes35c120$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+46.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes44c114.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1517232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e05…5f33backed No80c111.03$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50b4…d098backed No29c104.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7913…350dbacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22b7…0edabacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf3e…a9d2backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e6…b3f2backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No65c99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes29c97.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.