Weather · resolved market
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa36a017a577e039dbbcce6b05507d7da8aad7e044428378277d5dc042697ff82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,286$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 49c | 2,020$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.29 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…d8d0backed Yes | 72c | 1,583$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 37c | 1,555$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.39 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b7…d913backed No | 20c | 1,532$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 51c | 1,440$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 2c | 1,375$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 30c | 1,374$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 51c | 1,329$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.79 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 8c | 1,256$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,190$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 48c | 1,182$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 1,164$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.3 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,155$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 5c | 1,151$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 42c | 1,147$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked Yes | 80c | 1,139$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 52c | 1,129$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.08 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d4…be7cbacked No | 52c | 1,126$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed No | 20c | 1,126$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 18c | 1,122$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 18c | 1,076$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 80c | 1,043$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 48c | 1,035$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 57c | 1,027$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed No | 40c | 986$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed Yes | 48c | 914$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 48c | 912$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 52c | 903$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 80c | 899$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed No | 20c | 880$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked Yes | 78c | 879$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed Yes | 45c | 853$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 20c | 849$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8132…a491backed Yes | 49c | 834$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 51c | 823$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.73 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 49c | 810$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 48c | 799$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 52c | 793$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 45c | 783$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 49c | 777$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.27 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 52c | 765$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 48c | 747$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 2c | 743.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 52c | 742$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 48c | 723$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…282abacked Yes | 48c | 702$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 52c | 695$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 48c | 694$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 74c | 693$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 49c | 692$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked No | 20c | 683$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 52c | 682$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6576…f0abbacked No | 15c | 668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 80c | 664$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed Yes | 48c | 661$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed Yes | 49c | 659$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 48c | 656$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed No | 20c | 641$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd008…e9dbbacked No | 20c | 639$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed No | 20c | 628$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fb…f72ebacked No | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 80c | 611$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 80c | 609$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 52c | 601$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 80c | 592$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes | 80c | 588$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 15c | 587$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 42c | 586$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.38 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c9…af45backed No | 20c | 581$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 74c | 578$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 48c | 569$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.88 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 29c | 563$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 52c | 561$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed Yes | 66c | 561$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 48c | 558$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed Yes | 48c | 555$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 52c | 552$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.04 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 44c | 552$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…f8a5backed Yes | 80c | 549$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 52c | 547$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 52c | 542$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked Yes | 28c | 540.37$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 13c | 537$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 48c | 536$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 51c | 534$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 52c | 531$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed No | 72c | 527$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 71c | 526$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed Yes | 48c | 524$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 28c | 523.16$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.68 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +169.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 35c | 522.02$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed No | 20c | 509$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 25c | 505$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 51c | 504$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8153backed Yes | 80c | 502$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 31c | 496$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 51c | 489$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 52c | 489$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 72c | 479$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?this page
- Will 120 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
- Will 90 to 119 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.