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NBA · resolved market

Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,384 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 310 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf574…5e3ebacked No55c37,585$20,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,913.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x446c…82dabacked Yes45c37,526$16,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,886.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes7c6,633$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.3138239.5%151 W · 231 L+35.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+15.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes45c3,626$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,621.5912245.1%55 W · 67 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed No57c2,914$1,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.143100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f33…0d05backed No66c2,614$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.95450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No60c2,410$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.0760549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f7…00f9backed Yes31c2,181$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.154022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes9c1,618$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-73.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No66c1,488$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.332157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes22c1,394$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.781,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed Yes25c1,301$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.951926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-52.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes15c1,181$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.152733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No68c1,088$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.472744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed No79c1,079$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No67c1,062$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.463243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No67c1,030$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.91850%9 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes33c1,027$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.782653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked No72c972$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.361266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+133.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes33c957$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.763339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed No70c924$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed No75c908$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.522245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No66c863$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.422853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes31c862$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.221338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No69c849$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.534334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed Yes30c825$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.51741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No70c822$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.62751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes30c801$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.172347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No67c789$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.372445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No67c768.78$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4322140.3%89 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Yes32c766$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.121931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed Yes33c759$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.471850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes34c747$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.982030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Yes33c718$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.842157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+30.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked No66c717$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.782445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No70c714.02$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.222,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes34c703.94$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+276.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed No66c703$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.891782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+76.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Yes17c697$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.492548%12 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed Yes30c689$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.522339.1%9 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No67c681$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.732544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked No75c680$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1704447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes31c679$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.342944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No68c663$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.163250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes33c661$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.132250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed Yes31c660$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.61266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes15c647.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6118235.7%65 W · 117 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No70c647$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.062951.7%15 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes31c640$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.333135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No66c632$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.882556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No68c613$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.622937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes17c613$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.213050%15 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…5c87backed Yes33c598.3$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+132%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes33c595$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.351442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed No65c587$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.262259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Yes33c566$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.782040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53de…b486backed Yes30c550$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1651735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6499…05d2backed Yes34c550$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1873141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No69c550$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.462657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes20c548.1$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5211723.9%28 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No65c546.41$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.822041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No75c531$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.731741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes25c526$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.931625%4 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed Yes30c516$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc666…7130backed No67c510$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes15c497$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.551442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes35c491$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.85944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No66c486$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.243240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes33c485$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.054235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed No69c475$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.252040%8 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes35c474$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.577337%27 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes33c468$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.441435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes31c467.01$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.962842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed No67c459$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.471560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes33c453$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked Yes34c449$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.661833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes16c447.21$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1926048.1%125 W · 135 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed No68c442$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.442334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed Yes31c440$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.42445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed No66c424$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.16944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked Yes34c424$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.161346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No66c419$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.462556%14 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes24c408.56$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.221,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes32c405.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.213339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes41c400$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.323423.5%8 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82c…dd71backed Yes37c399.72$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.432630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No67c399$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.671758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+40.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed No69c399$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.692437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8911…5ffabacked Yes22c394.34$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.852733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6163…58ccbacked No69c388$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.741936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe433…1700backed No69c387$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.972642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes32c387$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.513435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No64c384.64$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.278853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No74c380$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.84047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes34c373$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.821136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No69c363$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.972528%7 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes21c358$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.442744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes17c357$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.692250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe43…af79backed No66c352$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.681060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+74.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed No67c351$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.831931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-46.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.