TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,915
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,915 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4959…a6f5backed No14c2,281$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.028853.4%47 W · 41 L+7.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No6c1,794$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.42433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes58c1,490$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.042030%6 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed Yes46c1,454$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a1…1950backed Yes60c1,438$862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.2838152.8%201 W · 180 L+18.2wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked No3c1,333$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No42c1,241$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5161747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed No54c1,218$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+35%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes69c1,135$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.0822140.3%89 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed Yes45c1,053$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.151060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed No55c1,046$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.31020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-58.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed No42c1,023$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.661030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes58c958$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.361855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed Yes45c947$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.851861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed No45c911$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.492147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No44c894$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.362733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed Yes57c871$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.532556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No44c869$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.361833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd2b…ebedbacked Yes56c815$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.61464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed No40c759$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.61450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe27…9623backed No54c736$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.44955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No47c727$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.953145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes60c721$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.41540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes56c715$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.422157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed No41c692$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick60cpaid-68.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes50c690$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.851656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked Yes45c678$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+79.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No47c677$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.453240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No18c674.25$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.9526034.6%90 W · 170 L-20.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed No55c633$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.15119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick30cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed No44c606$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.642060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaee…bd71backed Yes58c576$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.921573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+32%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No46c576$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.442638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No44c573$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.122548%12 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed No43c568$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.133135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No19c566.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.316762.7%42 W · 25 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed Yes55c551$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.953138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked Yes60c543$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.22250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked Yes45c537$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.351216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-43.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No5c533.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8315010%15 W · 135 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f2…6a72backed Yes57c531$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.331241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No55c528$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.41338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked Yes58c519$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.981338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked Yes58c516$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.72825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No45c511$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.953243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes75c501$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5942744.5%190 W · 237 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No61c498$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.78933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes56c496$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+68%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No44c479$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.761546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No44c477$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.882250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked No40c475$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No55c465$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc02…f89cbacked Yes55c462.91$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5413947.5%66 W · 73 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd58c…8954backed No5c461$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-61.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1832…af9ebacked No42c457$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.942254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes60c455$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1822653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes57c454.36$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.3419951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes50c454$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.92937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-37.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe335…cd12backed Yes45c453$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.152250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed No44c452$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.881118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes56c445$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.83357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed Yes33c439$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.132853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No44c433$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.521650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes37c408$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.042441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked No56c405$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes44c405$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.82254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e96…c895backed Yes56c402$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.881861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes42c389.68$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8222750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No44c386$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.842937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes56c381$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.642245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed Yes56c378$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.321844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…16a3backed No6c373.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.07110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa48a…fcd2backed No55c370$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+34.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No6c368.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.76156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-91.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes60c368$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.23339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes56c364$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.162152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No44c363$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.722445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes20c360.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.3877437.5%290 W · 484 L-1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc94…efd5backed Yes39c358$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.38771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No45c357$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.651752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked No40c354$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.62030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No45c346$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.72030%6 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed Yes56c342$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.482955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+47.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No40c341$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.42937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes56c338$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.723148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes56c337$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No50c335$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.655145.1%23 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No42c334$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.282045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed Yes45c325$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.751861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes56c312$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.283033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked No42c310$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed Yes58c310$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes22c295$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.12152.4%11 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick32cpaid+209.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5880…a675backed No58c293$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.831181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+75.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed Yes45c292$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.63339.4%13 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7832…ca08backed No6c288.53$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No44c285$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.072828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed No67c283$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.612842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe356…63bcbacked No6c282.63$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.01742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes50c281$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.662437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.