Weather · resolved market
CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ae89ed96d142cbd7a1ae13c8577056cb062311b944e28dda9938f72e189bcc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 54c | 4,596$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 57c | 3,150$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…c334backed Yes | 11c | 1,460$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 11c | 1,326$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 16c | 1,315$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 19c | 1,314$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.34 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 77c | 1,113$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 73c | 966.16$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 17c | 933$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 22c | 922.28$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755e…7b04backed Yes | 20c | 855$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 854$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 12c | 784$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 79c | 768$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed Yes | 17c | 758$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 12c | 747$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 12c | 746$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 12c | 741$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes | 14c | 734$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 15c | 712$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 17c | 691$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.53 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 20c | 684$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 12c | 659$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.92 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked Yes | 12c | 647$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccb…6c69backed No | 78c | 644$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…28d0backed Yes | 12c | 644$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 16c | 636$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 14c | 590$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.1 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…d78bbacked Yes | 17c | 557$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 15c | 545$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 29c | 541.66$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5859…a4cebacked No | 70c | 539.24$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 80c | 526$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed Yes | 19c | 525$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7c…a11bbacked Yes | 22c | 476$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 19c | 449$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 14c | 449$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 75c | 445.26$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.97 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…6487backed Yes | 19c | 445$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 20c | 440$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 80c | 440$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 11c | 439$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed Yes | 11c | 436$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.04 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 17c | 431$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked Yes | 14c | 431$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 417$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +148.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…fc69backed Yes | 19c | 417$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed Yes | 18c | 414$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 17c | 386$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2633…67b1backed Yes | 13c | 378.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 17c | 375$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 17c | 362$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 14c | 349$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed No | 80c | 315$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes | 15c | 303$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.55 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 23c | 282$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…dd5fbacked No | 78c | 277$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 14c | 254.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.39 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…83e5backed Yes | 16c | 253.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 18c | 253$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 29c | 250$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 19c | 235$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.35 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 80c | 218$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…da72backed Yes | 27c | 217.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +275.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 23c | 215$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 16c | 208.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 18c | 200.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed No | 78c | 185$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 59c | 172.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 13c | 160.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 15c | 159$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 17c | 151$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 15c | 144$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 14c | 133$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked Yes | 19c | 132$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…06e3backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 23c | 122$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed Yes | 14c | 95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 19c | 93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 14c | 88.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x097a…55bfbacked Yes | 25c | 78.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +292.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 17c | 77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.91 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…ffc7backed Yes | 17c | 60.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +146.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 23c | 54.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…d354backed Yes | 22c | 54.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…d722backed Yes | 23c | 54.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38f…bf78backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…745abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +278.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.