Token Launches · resolved market
Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6cb8463376952fd97a9ead76f8cdc898b68a4df3e8a777d18dd51f558ccf384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,548$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 12c | 2,199$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 12c | 1,379$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 29cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed No | 14c | 1,352$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 14c | 1,284$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.75 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 5c | 1,202$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked No | 13c | 1,078$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed No | 21c | 1,072$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 12c | 978$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 14c | 970$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed No | 13c | 897$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 12c | 825$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 12c | 823$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 12c | 794$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 780.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 24c | 689$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed No | 15c | 665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 12c | 658.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…6562backed No | 13c | 629$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked Yes | 76c | 621$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 7c | 544.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed No | 15c | 471$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed No | 11c | 458.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 12c | 449$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 12c | 418$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed No | 12c | 403$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 12c | 396$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 15c | 378$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 12c | 361$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +312.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 3c | 356.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed No | 11c | 355$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 3c | 354.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 12c | 351$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 15c | 349$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 15c | 340$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked No | 12c | 339$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed No | 12c | 335$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 12c | 334$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked No | 13c | 323$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 10c | 299.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 15c | 295$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b98…fcd3backed No | 11c | 273$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…91c8backed No | 11c | 270$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 12c | 249$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 15c | 211$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 16c | 200.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed No | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 12c | 172.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed No | 12c | 172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 12c | 163$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked No | 12c | 163$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 12c | 136$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…ebcabacked No | 11c | 111.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…c84abacked No | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fa…9cf7backed No | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349a…77fcbacked Yes | 79c | 38.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 76c | 13.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.