Token Launches · resolved market
Will ETHGAS launch a token by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af8f2741caec30df3baaa476c104c2d0d1cff1dc1e9df97ad60703e180443f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 17c | 2,071$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.02 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,063$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 18c | 1,828$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.35 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 21c | 1,273$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 21c | 1,263$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes | 73c | 999.99$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed No | 21c | 897.2$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 76c | 863$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 807.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 79c | 730$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 79c | 687$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 641.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 615.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 79c | 605$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +312.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 21c | 590$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 571.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 565.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 18c | 536$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 22c | 527$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f52fbacked No | 7c | 484.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523d…cc1dbacked No | 23c | 482$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed Yes | 78c | 468$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f3…80e4backed No | 16c | 430$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 4c | 409.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8401…a498backed Yes | 79c | 370$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 8c | 332.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 77c | 316$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 20c | 304.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b98…fcd3backed No | 16c | 295$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7a…0beabacked Yes | 68c | 287$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…7a65backed No | 24c | 259$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 22c | 247.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…c8cebacked Yes | 76c | 243.11$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 77c | 233$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed No | 23c | 233$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 78c | 226$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 22c | 226$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…5ec1backed No | 21c | 190.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9c…c336backed No | 11c | 183.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 79c | 172$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e4…becfbacked No | 17c | 172$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 77c | 166$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed No | 23c | 154.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 13c | 152.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fa…9cf7backed No | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…fa95backed No | 21c | 122.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 75c | 116.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…61d7backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 15c | 77.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 23cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 16c | 71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes | 78c | 59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 32c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…cb2dbacked Yes | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 23c | 53.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 79c | 50.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…ee5abacked No | 24c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 53c | 22.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7187backed Yes | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f64…fd82backed Yes | 64c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.