TailMyPicks
Market

Token Launches · resolved market

Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc76…7842backed No14c8,707$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.985135.3%18 W · 33 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No5c7,171$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.072377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691c…e0aabacked No22c3,370$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.983125.8%8 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…eca5backed Yes39c2,651$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.552100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d37…b317backed Yes73c2,615$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.52650%3 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No31c2,491$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7714131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked No16c2,350$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.273438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No52c1,736$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6f…e218backed Yes59c1,516$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…ee5abacked Yes53c1,354$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.38944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7187backed Yes65c1,333$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.63100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed No43c1,205$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.445127.5%14 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-44.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No12c1,171$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.183013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c1,122$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.912442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed No55c1,079$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.474742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed No45c1,076$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed Yes55c1,069$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.05560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked Yes65c1,034$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.269942.4%42 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed No44c1,021$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.111030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-49.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4728…6426backed No65c1,010$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.44580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+46.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No7c999.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc23…9297backed No37c999.99$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3671741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No47c987$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.8940%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes57c945$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.35683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+66.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No47c932$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c903.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.093283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a6…2833backed Yes67c822.21$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-60.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a24…5de8backed Yes57c788.22$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed No45c784$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked No45c766$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+42.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafb2…254fbacked Yes59c723.78$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No47c714$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.58837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No52c704.21$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-53%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…7c6cbacked No14c700.08$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+138.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…deaebacked No36c670.22$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf29e…841dbacked No42c631.11$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.23225%8 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc580…9e1abacked Yes44c618.58$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.382100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+205.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c40…3575backed Yes45c612.78$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6735…f5b7backed No19c610.7$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.391154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f52…d634backed Yes47c605.07$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked No38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c600$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f6a…be7ebacked Yes54c590$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.42352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes53c569$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.43450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab1c…35a7backed No52c552.54$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.623823.7%9 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed Yes57c538$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed No36c525.46$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.051421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-50.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes58c519.25$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.0510370.9%73 W · 30 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No2c519.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed No43c512.4$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.333053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed No34c506.45$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.821915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a7a…0beabacked Yes45c504.34$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+84.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf90…9345backed No58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.35per pick47cpaid-83.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa55b…e0debacked No9c500$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.381915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3d0…3df9backed Yes60c496.14$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.14966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e08…7788backed No62c492.17$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.873426.5%9 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No22c483.44$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.235712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No42c471$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes55c444$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae2…0999backed No51c415.33$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes58c414$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+46.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes55c404$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd2…6820backed Yes50c401.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c34…3861backed No16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No15c400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6023841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4419543.1%84 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x349a…77fcbacked Yes53c370$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.93100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes62c369$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-45.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No22c356.08$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3725422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No43c355$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-46.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes53c354$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.381546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No47c341$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.271145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed Yes55c340$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No38c339.81$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.134358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No42c329$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.18714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No45c303$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed No44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210948.6%53 W · 56 L+11.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+54%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7166…b3eebacked No47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.681233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35d1…4defbacked No46c300$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa31…1eebbacked No43c299.99$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xebb2…c640backed No50c296.82$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1472060%12 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No45c291$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8043…91c8backed No39c290$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.13423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17d2…3082backed No46c290$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No47c286$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.421225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+107.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c280.07$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.977663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…4441backed Yes56c278$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.321050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed No38c264.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes53c249$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick51cpaid+45.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes42c242.23$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.296420.3%13 W · 51 L-4.7wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes53c238$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x433f…1accbacked Yes35c233.94$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.661485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+111.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes62c231$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.781127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-51.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes57c229$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f14…7328backed No48c228.77$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.57944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes54c225$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf58d…a617backed Yes55c224$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No13c222.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9917948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes53c222$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.34475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick63cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.