Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715868be95f1828b7e85efcdeeb1a7006d0dd7ec24da1e35c9e9d73ee8c48e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7775…6cb4backed Yes | 22c | 1,242$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 16c | 1,165$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 24c | 1,097$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 77c | 1,088$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…904bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,048$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 18c | 989$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 23c | 840$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f5f9backed Yes | 20c | 775.34$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 25c | 662$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 24c | 660$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 76c | 650$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…f352backed Yes | 10c | 635.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 25c | 596$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427e…5ab4backed Yes | 12c | 570$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 555.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 16c | 544$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…7914backed No | 75c | 521$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 15c | 437$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 15c | 437$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 15c | 416$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 15c | 406$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 18c | 378$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 5c | 370.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 14c | 368$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 75c | 341$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed No | 75c | 321$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 16c | 320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 76c | 304$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 76c | 297$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc98…62ecbacked Yes | 16c | 290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked No | 76c | 279$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 24c | 279$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7013…8e71backed Yes | 4c | 264.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 11c | 247$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…be04backed Yes | 14c | 244$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed No | 78c | 240$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…cae1backed Yes | 22c | 222$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 14c | 213.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 204.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…8e90backed Yes | 23c | 204$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 16c | 204$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 15c | 188$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 78c | 161$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc493…d8fdbacked Yes | 13c | 155$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 108.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c18…5079backed Yes | 11c | 100.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7052…0db8backed Yes | 21c | 96.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…a315backed No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92b…84afbacked Yes | 12c | 91.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…2a92backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 79c | 77.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecd…5d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in February?this page
- Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February?Yes won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 6 launches in February?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 7 launches in February?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 8 launches in February?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in February?No won
- Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 5 launches in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.