Weather · resolved market
Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8057ef1aa3a17de2ae72b397cb1e9e88086d58d2aaf645036f4aa00316af298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 7c | 2,200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 9c | 842.56$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 7c | 784.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 660.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efe…d947backed No | 9c | 509$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 5c | 485$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 7c | 399$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 7c | 387$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 6c | 348.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 9c | 326$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 6c | 313.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed No | 8c | 309$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 6c | 300.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 4c | 299$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed No | 8c | 290$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 10c | 286$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 8c | 265$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 10c | 264$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 8c | 264$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…84bebacked No | 9c | 263$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 10c | 258$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed No | 6c | 255.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 10c | 249$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ead…6c75backed No | 8c | 247$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 8c | 235$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 8c | 228$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd320…81a5backed No | 7c | 222$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 8c | 219$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed No | 8c | 217$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked No | 8c | 212$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4c…44d8backed No | 7c | 201$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a94…7154backed No | 9c | 195$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…eae0backed No | 8c | 189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 7c | 182$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 10c | 175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…c735backed No | 8c | 168.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 9c | 159$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c2e0backed No | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed No | 8c | 131$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 10c | 129$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed No | 10c | 115$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…03cbbacked No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 11c | 98.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?this page
- Will November 2025 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will November 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.