Weather · resolved market
Will November 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bd341b62c0b6f41ba089c2293d2bfa9cc8e15fdc477aafd9a7d3ae4bdd6ade7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 5c | 8,433$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.89 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1327…9237backed Yes | 6c | 3,584$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…d024backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 8c | 1,630$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 1,149$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,089$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 940.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 7c | 685$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 7c | 598.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef9…4e2bbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 7c | 481$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed Yes | 3c | 443$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 6c | 414$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 7c | 378$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed Yes | 4c | 348$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 345.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…5735backed Yes | 5c | 330$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 6c | 329$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 5c | 299.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 6c | 295$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 7c | 293$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 5c | 263$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 6c | 209$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 6c | 198$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 7c | 196$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…e065backed Yes | 6c | 185$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed Yes | 7c | 183$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 46c | 122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will November 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?this page
- Will November 2025 be the 1st hottest on record?No won
- Will November 2025 be the 3rd hottest on record?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.