Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac95c1e06bd09aa1014bb80342031a61ea44b5ac35d3961e4cde279bf060217f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 19c | 972$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 76c | 949$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 24c | 811$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 18c | 807$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 17c | 753$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.01 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 20c | 733$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 717.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 698.98$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…cb02backed Yes | 26c | 664$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 80c | 645$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 74c | 638$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 26c | 614$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 17c | 486$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed Yes | 20c | 456$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 26c | 450$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed No | 77c | 446$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 74c | 438$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 80c | 433$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed No | 74c | 423$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 23c | 421$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed No | 74c | 413$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed No | 74c | 399$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 24c | 391$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466e…ed99backed Yes | 26c | 328$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes | 26c | 306$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 26c | 301$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…a487backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 20c | 297$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…ebedbacked No | 80c | 276$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed No | 79c | 266$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 21c | 266$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 74c | 213$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 189.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.31 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 23c | 189$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa151…13b4backed No | 80c | 175$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 19c | 172$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed No | 77c | 164$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 26c | 163$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 19c | 161$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked No | 76c | 149$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed Yes | 20c | 136$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 117.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 20c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?this page
- Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
- Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.