Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d11047d7ca77b9d32edb64e83991beffeef82cee40352481e2c60f79cf8b9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 26c | 273.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.72 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ca…8479backed Yes | 65c | 253.8$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 55c | 210$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.29 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 61c | 170.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.44 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 67c | 85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 34c | 84.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 58c | 83.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 74c | 82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff0f…c5efbacked Yes | 78c | 78.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…08d0backed No | 49c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f7…7bd9backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 72c | 47.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e97…727fbacked No | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 45.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes | 67c | 44.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 46c | 35.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 35.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 41c | 31.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c04…c81abacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…3a86backed Yes | 60c | 26.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…8274backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…322cbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?this page
- Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
- Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.