Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x507336e3683e857dab92cbcb691e788fb6d2c6f0a810d4c0d6034cc60b7011e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c1b…4b4fbacked No | 54c | 912.56$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bb…5048backed Yes | 29c | 862.83$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…90c4backed Yes | 43c | 620$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 46c | 521.09$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.39 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 24c | 436.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 65c | 400$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.39 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 41c | 376.07$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.28 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 46c | 367$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.18 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 57c | 345$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 38c | 342.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.37 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 57c | 275$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 43c | 222.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 69c | 174.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 70c | 170.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…482dbacked Yes | 37c | 167.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 147$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 40c | 133.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 66c | 127$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 32c | 97.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…4a46backed Yes | 33c | 77.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 36c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed No | 61c | 56.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 30c | 42.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 68c | 32.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed No | 63c | 18.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7f…5060backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?this page
- Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.