Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9173fbd3efa3cb557065ba3454e777c94754b2cd065714fbd0c2dce140f326e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,462$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.08 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 55c | 828.18$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.02 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 66c | 740$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 66c | 553$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed No | 66c | 417$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 42c | 387.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 53c | 387.93$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 79c | 324$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 63c | 304$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 19c | 280.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 34c | 278$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 66c | 219$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 24c | 173.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 34c | 166$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 34c | 154$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…5d5abacked Yes | 8c | 131.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked No | 66c | 131$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 96.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 18c | 83.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 77.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 57c | 66.66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 49c | 61.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 81 | 14.8%12 W · 69 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…9501backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed No | 47c | 55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 33c | 54.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 18.4%16 W · 71 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46b9…67b5backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 77c | 30.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 28.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…00c8backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?this page
- Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?No won
- Will Ritesh Tandon advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
- Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.