Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe2252feb42b566915b9ad599ded119a0dcefd318734a8a691fe2add291edc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 2,983$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…c419backed Yes | 6c | 2,247$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 11c | 1,691$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,630$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 1,504$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,488$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 11c | 1,331$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.41 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…c6a6backed Yes | 14c | 1,242$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 11c | 1,236$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +181.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…aef5backed Yes | 13c | 1,079$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.31 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,008$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21da…a70dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…3f70backed Yes | 6c | 920.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 11c | 908$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 5c | 907.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked Yes | 12c | 873$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…a617backed Yes | 12c | 848$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 11c | 832$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 11c | 815$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 763.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 12c | 737$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 12c | 715$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 61c | 710.54$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.61 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 11c | 709$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed Yes | 12c | 707$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 76c | 699$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 24c | 699$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 7c | 685.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 671.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 643.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 11c | 634$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 620.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 16c | 604.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 596.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 7c | 570.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c22…50e1backed Yes | 11c | 568$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 563.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 550$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7d…f2e9backed Yes | 23c | 529.58$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 4c | 513.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes | 7c | 506.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…1bb5backed Yes | 12c | 502$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 498.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 473.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…48d6backed Yes | 5c | 463.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 28c | 463.51$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.34 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 11c | 463$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 11c | 455$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed Yes | 12c | 448$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…7763backed Yes | 11c | 447$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…66cdbacked Yes | 6c | 436.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…9bc5backed Yes | 12c | 435$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 432.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356e…75b8backed Yes | 48c | 417.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 12c | 392$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 55c | 381$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 376.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 7c | 367.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…af79backed Yes | 4c | 363.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked Yes | 17c | 363.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 11c | 360$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 12c | 333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 59c | 319.19$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 15c | 314.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 311.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 11c | 303$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 12c | 302$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 5c | 290.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf331…303abacked Yes | 30c | 289.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 4c | 274.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 5c | 272.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…5214backed Yes | 5c | 268.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 7c | 265.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 11c | 265$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 11c | 263$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…0c32backed Yes | 45c | 258$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 49cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…8412backed Yes | 18c | 257.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 6c | 255$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed Yes | 12c | 248$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 12c | 248$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 11c | 246.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 11c | 246$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 6c | 243.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 240$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 10c | 232.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 21c | 231.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 67 | 7.5%5 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41bd…1196backed Yes | 11c | 225.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 12c | 225$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 220.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 216.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 11c | 212$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…4020backed Yes | 12c | 209.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…8916backed Yes | 31c | 208$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 205.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…7067backed Yes | 8c | 198.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?this page
- Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by December 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.