Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508d34be21d6f993b5e141eedeb0a413cebfc7d4ba9e155bcc4efe096dee400c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdd…a831backed Yes | 36c | 664.06$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 9c | 484.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 51c | 314.06$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.35 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 34c | 273.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 47c | 262.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.74 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed Yes | 14c | 218$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…09debacked Yes | 14c | 204$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x197d…7cffbacked Yes | 15c | 201.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 194.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed No | 78c | 179.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ead…14f8backed No | 57c | 154.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 153.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…4d0abacked Yes | 64c | 141.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14e…4286backed Yes | 79c | 124.67$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 79c | 113$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 17c | 111.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 89.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dec…a589backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +305.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 25c | 66.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 60.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 59.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x455d…fc93backed Yes | 40c | 45.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…31e6backed No | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1a…2d83backed Yes | 56c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a2…051bbacked No | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 59c | 23.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdea1…9931backed No | 56c | 21.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 70c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?this page
- Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by December 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.