Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032709a8e2d7ac74943201f32aaafb69ed0d6cd11b0512f1cf7f8ed62ea96ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,741$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.66 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 7c | 804.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 9c | 725.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 12c | 674.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…bdb2backed Yes | 14c | 609.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…f425backed Yes | 22c | 498.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 7c | 461.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 9c | 446$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 443.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 16c | 342.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 338.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 30c | 311.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 290.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 259.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 16c | 246.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 48c | 234.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 18c | 219.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed Yes | 14c | 219.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f96…9dd5backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…d591backed Yes | 12c | 165.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed No | 52c | 164.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 63c | 158$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 10c | 143.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 13c | 105.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf5…4e75backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 12c | 86.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…85e8backed Yes | 24c | 78.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 25c | 44.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 63c | 29.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?this page
- Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by December 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.