Middle East · resolved market
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 4c | 1,408$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 146 | 9.6%14 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 14c | 857$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x506a…1b43backed No | 75c | 807$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 25c | 807$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 27c | 719.74$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.93 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 223.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 7c | 191.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…179abacked Yes | 13c | 184.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed Yes | 16c | 142.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 69c | 138.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 136.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked Yes | 37c | 134.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 18c | 80.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x512e…f4e3backed Yes | 22c | 72.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 17c | 66.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12eb…07dfbacked Yes | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…31e6backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…28bbbacked Yes | 23c | 51.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.41per pick | 22cpaid | +204.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92a5…ed7dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c83…8a22backed No | 75c | 28.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +11.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?this page
- Israel military action on Damascus by April 30, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by December 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by October 31?No won
- Israel strike on Damascus by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.