TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$102,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110f…8f39backed No39c3,326$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.764472.7%32 W · 12 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+59.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes53c1,872$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.161822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-52.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No48c1,797$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.532450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes46c1,743$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.872941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes48c1,691$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.0318444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes51c1,620$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.833641.7%15 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes53c1,612$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.571656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x643f…e306backed No50c1,454$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.793333.3%11 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-37%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes54c1,449$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.032360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No47c1,445$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.851770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked No47c1,289$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.031758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed No48c1,287$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.242250%11 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed No49c1,206$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked Yes52c1,187$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.651729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e1…d9c1backed No49c1,180$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.411573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+86.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed Yes51c1,119$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.691216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-77.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No49c1,108$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.083148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes53c1,056$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.681850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No48c983$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.812951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed Yes51c973$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.853240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No49c970$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.543452.9%18 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes54c921$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.341435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes22c919$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.182623.1%6 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked Yes54c894$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.761338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No49c855$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.052055%11 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes53c777$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.812733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-37%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed No47c755$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.151573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick48cpaid+46.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6ceb…7fc8backed No47c735$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.551643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes60c728$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.81735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked No78c724$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.281936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed Yes52c723$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.483432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed Yes51c719$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.591625%4 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes53c708$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.242123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-63.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf82e…5b63backed Yes33c700$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-67.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked No47c699$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.472759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed Yes57c677$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.253016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-75.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes38c676.71$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7433123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked No47c676$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.852737%10 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes53c659$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.272231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes51c651$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.012343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes52c639$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.652544%11 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No46c629.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.7813740.1%55 W · 82 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed No46c624$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.962040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes52c619$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.883652.8%19 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked No48c615$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.83056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5232…0ec5backed Yes61c593$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.94366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked No78c583$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.261471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+42.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No48c583$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.521850%9 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed Yes51c564$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.642941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes53c558$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.982638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed Yes53c531$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.431250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f3d…9ef2backed No79c510$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.11154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+62.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No49c502$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.022524%6 W · 19 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-61.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes74c500$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a8…9b29backed No49c498$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.981838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No47c497$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.411963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+33.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5421…f713backed Yes56c472.16$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No49c466$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.662152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No46c449$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.461330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No49c445$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.951330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes51c441$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.912147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No49c439$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.892352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes51c438$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.38933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4c5…dcb1backed No48c436$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.721553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No49c420$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.22552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes54c420$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.81729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed Yes53c419$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.072339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed Yes52c414$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.283063.3%19 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes51c411$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.612733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked No46c407$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.782466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked No48c396$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.921145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed Yes52c396$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.921844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes52c391$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.321040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No46c383$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.823240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked No48c381$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.82356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d8…4c30backed No46c374$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.96955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes51c362$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.624348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes51c355$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.053946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked No48c351$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.522171.4%15 W · 6 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+90.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No49c350$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.53056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.5wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+87.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed No47c348$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.623056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e4…b332backed No47c338$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19cd…f7ffbacked No49c332$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.322540%10 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No47c326$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.784542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes53c314$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.422030%6 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes53c308$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.242934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed Yes22c306$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.321030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed No47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1592152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No48c291$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.963938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes54c285$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.92352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed No46c282$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.282857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+6.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked No47c280$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.45046%23 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes50c271.48$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7834651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed No47c269$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.572045%9 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes53c263$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.393432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes52c262$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.241758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+79.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes58c257$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.1619440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No46c257$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.781353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes52c253$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.564334.9%15 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.