Movies · resolved market
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf22c28703da3dd2786794855d0b08e812f4db9cf5f2f5d36edf3fbbe3a5debca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x110f…8f39backed No | 39c | 3,326$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.76 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…50f8backed Yes | 53c | 1,872$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.16 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 48c | 1,797$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 46c | 1,743$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.87 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 48c | 1,691$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.03 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 51c | 1,620$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.83 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 53c | 1,612$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.57 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed No | 50c | 1,454$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.79 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 54c | 1,449$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.03 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 47c | 1,445$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…cacebacked No | 47c | 1,289$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 48c | 1,287$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed No | 49c | 1,206$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked Yes | 52c | 1,187$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…d9c1backed No | 49c | 1,180$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.41 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.3wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 51c | 1,119$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 49c | 1,108$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 53c | 1,056$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed No | 48c | 983$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.81 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 51c | 973$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked No | 49c | 970$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.54 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 54c | 921$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 22c | 919$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked Yes | 54c | 894$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…09a9backed No | 49c | 855$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.05 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 53c | 777$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.81 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 47c | 755$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.15 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed No | 47c | 735$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 60c | 728$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked No | 78c | 724$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 52c | 723$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.48 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…5b88backed Yes | 51c | 719$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…f4c6backed Yes | 53c | 708$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5b63backed Yes | 33c | 700$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 47c | 699$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 57c | 677$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 38c | 676.71$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.74 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 47c | 676$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.85 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 53c | 659$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 51c | 651$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.01 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 52c | 639$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.65 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 46c | 629.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.78 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 46c | 624$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 52c | 619$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.88 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked No | 48c | 615$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.8 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5232…0ec5backed Yes | 61c | 593$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 78c | 583$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 48c | 583$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.52 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 51c | 564$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.64 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 53c | 558$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.98 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed Yes | 53c | 531$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed No | 79c | 510$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed No | 49c | 502$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.02 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.21per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 74c | 500$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed No | 49c | 498$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 47c | 497$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.41 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…f713backed Yes | 56c | 472.16$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 49c | 466$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.66 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 46c | 449$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa906…84e4backed No | 49c | 445$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 51c | 441$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.91 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked No | 49c | 439$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked Yes | 51c | 438$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 48c | 436$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked No | 49c | 420$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 54c | 420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 53c | 419$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.07 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 52c | 414$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.28 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed Yes | 51c | 411$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 46c | 407$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.78 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 48c | 396$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 52c | 396$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6034…b5fdbacked Yes | 52c | 391$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 46c | 383$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.82 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked No | 48c | 381$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d8…4c30backed No | 46c | 374$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 51c | 362$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes | 51c | 355$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.05 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked No | 48c | 351$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.52 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 44cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 49c | 350$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 47c | 348$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…b332backed No | 47c | 338$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked No | 49c | 332$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 47c | 326$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.78 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 53c | 314$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5c80backed Yes | 53c | 308$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed Yes | 22c | 306$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1bf…a751backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 48c | 291$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.96 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 54c | 285$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed No | 46c | 282$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.28 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 47c | 280$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 50c | 271.48$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 47c | 269$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.57 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed Yes | 53c | 263$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.39 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes | 52c | 262$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 58c | 257$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 46c | 257$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked Yes | 52c | 253$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)this page
- Will "Cover-Up" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Downtown Abbey: A New Era" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "Eden" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "The Best You Can" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
- Will "The Grinch" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.