AI · resolved market
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab40e34d49fad45aa58b77bb968d05fef9faab1a5f2ab819bcff5213a179c7d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $370,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 42,223$4,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,960.31 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 12c | 23,115$2,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,829.69 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked No | 67c | 20,993$14,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,860.37 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 68c | 19,676$13,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,208.41 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 69c | 18,322$12,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,590.97 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed No | 65c | 16,326$10,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,736.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 23c | 12,537$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,884.26 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked No | 50c | 7,015$3,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,473.26 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…b50cbacked Yes | 14c | 7,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…471abacked Yes | 16c | 6,275$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 58c | 5,484$3,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,175.25 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed Yes | 49c | 5,156$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,526.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46a4…60dabacked Yes | 13c | 3,594$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.34 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…044bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,500$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes | 38c | 2,903$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 25c | 2,713$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…b69cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,700$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…00b3backed Yes | 43c | 2,544$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.01 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…0ceabacked Yes | 57c | 2,341$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fb…484ebacked Yes | 67c | 2,211$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…1592backed Yes | 25c | 2,150$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 21c | 2,140$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.97 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,070$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.05 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 2c | 2,018$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…e7cabacked Yes | 15c | 1,908$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda01…1bcabacked Yes | 50c | 1,857$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…5515backed Yes | 12c | 1,776$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 44c | 1,601$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.79 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef6…0d9dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,577$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4375…8eb7backed Yes | 69c | 1,453$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d53…4769backed Yes | 69c | 1,444$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked No | 57c | 1,428$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.1 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc2…0933backed Yes | 20c | 1,427$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 36c | 1,427$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.6 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…1a6abacked Yes | 70c | 1,402$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 68c | 1,400$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…41aebacked Yes | 14c | 1,308$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 1,305$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.2 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…eb5cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 49c | 1,238$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.98 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…a1ebbacked Yes | 19c | 1,156$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…202dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,154$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.51 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,148$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,099$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,072$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd77…82d9backed Yes | 61c | 1,054$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 51c | 1,024$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.98 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yes | 22c | 1,018$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9f…55bcbacked Yes | 53c | 1,005$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ab…6473backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…bca8backed Yes | 62c | 975.12$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa4…de04backed Yes | 59c | 972.01$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 32c | 959.1$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.12 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed Yes | 57c | 957$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…90ebbacked Yes | 50c | 945.18$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4144…b82abacked Yes | 16c | 935.96$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ac…5468backed No | 54c | 931.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 28c | 829.33$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.77 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…9522backed Yes | 44c | 825.87$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.36 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked No | 35c | 824$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 801.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed No | 75c | 800.77$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.92 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 53c | 757$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.07 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 748.82$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.49 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 50c | 726.02$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.47 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 15c | 700$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a9…d3adbacked Yes | 15c | 670.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed Yes | 15c | 666.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…6c8ebacked Yes | 16c | 661$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked No | 31c | 657.72$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.83 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…dc1fbacked Yes | 5c | 652.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf2…45c5backed No | 77c | 650.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 53c | 639.99$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.39 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…2923backed Yes | 24c | 631.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 600$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 69c | 589.98$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -72%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a72…1b09backed Yes | 69c | 574.86$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 545.01$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.73 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 46c | 544.97$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…c1ddbacked Yes | 64c | 534.74$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…63b2backed Yes | 43c | 509$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 507.29$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.76 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…fbfdbacked No | 60c | 503$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 24c | 499$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed Yes | 51c | 488.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 12c | 475.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e9…8f9fbacked Yes | 55c | 464$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +88%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 23c | 440$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 7c | 439.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 14c | 423$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 14c | 416$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 10c | 415.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 412.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?this page
- Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1600 on LMArena by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.