Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb477f614a7ac0a6bd70236d5412758de59a962af2d7c33a8e611e5d6a2d7aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca5a…7e43backed Yes | 14c | 23,141$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,901.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 10,973$4,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,707.42 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 53c | 5,885$3,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.7 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b30…30cfbacked Yes | 49c | 5,643$2,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,872.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed No | 18c | 4,727$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 14c | 3,571$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071.39 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90f…7b32backed Yes | 15c | 2,970$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,524.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +302%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 76c | 2,670$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.37 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…f591backed Yes | 41c | 2,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 14c | 1,440$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.13 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 74c | 1,429$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.35 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 15c | 1,387$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.67 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 79c | 1,265$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.35 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…e9dabacked Yes | 72c | 1,055$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 38c | 994.77$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.03 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 41c | 991$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 66c | 929.02$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.87 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 51c | 836.91$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.04 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…ee32backed Yes | 79c | 686.62$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Yes | 73c | 626.85$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 14c | 552.1$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.11 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 34c | 501.48$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.4 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 12c | 448.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.47 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 60c | 333.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 77c | 305.59$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 14c | 209.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 14c | 202.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 40c | 189.86$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 13c | 185.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 51c | 183.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 14c | 155.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 14c | 149$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.14 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…627fbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1114…d59abacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9f…a3f3backed Yes | 71c | 140.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2677…533cbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…3f82backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…adbcbacked Yes | 64c | 102.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 22c | 69.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…a953backed Yes | 79c | 66.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Yes | 51c | 58.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…3b30backed Yes | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…6ceabacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…38e6backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…17e7backed Yes | 41c | 41.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…4dcdbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…5595backed Yes | 52c | 29.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…eeb0backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6a…db02backed No | 69c | 25.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…b5e9backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…6865backed Yes | 76c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…6622backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.