Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcfd625d9a285f091ad6ef6128dabec846481f7e63586d5c0334c75202cbf46a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 8c | 25,397$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.73 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 8c | 14,797$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.1 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 6c | 6,116$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.95 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 7c | 4,886$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 6c | 4,397$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.76 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 5c | 3,088$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 3,050$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,862$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…06cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…47d1backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 8c | 999.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 7c | 819.3$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 8c | 594$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6980…2194backed Yes | 8c | 588$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 7c | 576.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 6c | 528.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 260 | 40.4%105 W · 155 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed Yes | 7c | 496.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7b…d405backed Yes | 7c | 477.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…eab4backed Yes | 8c | 453.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0f…a1acbacked Yes | 9c | 414.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb1…12ebbacked Yes | 9c | 338.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 4c | 310.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…9c9fbacked Yes | 10c | 288.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…937abacked Yes | 7c | 280.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76da…30a2backed Yes | 8c | 236.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…c684backed Yes | 7c | 185.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 7c | 163.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 7c | 155.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…e04bbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 149.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…b564backed Yes | 13c | 126.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…a42fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc0…0fa5backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-10-29?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.