Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a1b5f9a45b8e43ed9d7460bf3e8fa0f74652019fa86a5fdf42eb4ccb2418abe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 206 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed Yes | 72c | 2,755$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed Yes | 27c | 1,850$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 47c | 1,707$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 25c | 1,461$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed No | 74c | 1,445$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,390$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.83 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 75c | 1,380$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 25c | 1,368$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 25c | 1,361$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 60c | 1,249$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.57 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked No | 75c | 1,071$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 75c | 1,071$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +112.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…24efbacked No | 74c | 1,070$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…19c8backed No | 73c | 1,035$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed No | 74c | 1,033$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 75c | 1,031$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.25 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 74c | 1,030$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed Yes | 27c | 997$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked Yes | 27c | 986$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…ec87backed Yes | 25c | 977$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 75c | 973$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 73c | 966$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…7ddcbacked Yes | 25c | 959$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed Yes | 27c | 939$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.47 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 27c | 935$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.55 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 26c | 933$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed No | 73c | 931$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed Yes | 27c | 891$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…7699backed No | 73c | 885$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b2…0eb2backed No | 75c | 865$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…3dfcbacked No | 75c | 836$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b86…cc97backed Yes | 55c | 800$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 11c | 799.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 74c | 785$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 26c | 780$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.2 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed Yes | 26c | 760$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 25c | 736$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 75c | 729$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 25c | 723$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 25c | 716$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 27c | 714$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 43c | 710$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.27 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 74c | 676$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed No | 73c | 675$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…e50fbacked Yes | 26c | 670$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked No | 74c | 670$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 26c | 666$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 25c | 660$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 75c | 650$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…c453backed Yes | 26c | 648.48$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.09 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 27c | 637$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 27c | 609.52$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 64c | 605.09$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 27c | 591$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.43 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed No | 74c | 589$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed No | 75c | 577$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 27c | 541$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 74c | 533$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed Yes | 25c | 533$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 75c | 529$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 26c | 524$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 26c | 523$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed No | 75c | 508$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…26fdbacked No | 73c | 507$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…aa8ebacked Yes | 25c | 505$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 73c | 504$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed Yes | 25c | 497$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…3734backed Yes | 25c | 493$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 25c | 487$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 73c | 479$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.67 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 75c | 470$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed No | 75c | 464$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked Yes | 27c | 457$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1abbbacked No | 74c | 456$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…8ec9backed Yes | 26c | 449$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed No | 74c | 439$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.09 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 75c | 434$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…7f61backed No | 75c | 429$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 420.78$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.07 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 25c | 420$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 25c | 419$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.25 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82e4…fa57backed No | 75c | 416$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed No | 75c | 408$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.09 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes | 25c | 406$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…1f63backed No | 73c | 395$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 25c | 393$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 75c | 376$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 73c | 375$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a7…4d86backed No | 74c | 374$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 27c | 364$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4974backed No | 74c | 364$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9f70backed Yes | 26c | 361$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed No | 74c | 354$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked No | 75c | 354$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed Yes | 25c | 349$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 25c | 333$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 25c | 333$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 26c | 326$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…69e5backed No | 75c | 326$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.