Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91d306398bdceb9f1c36c9e1b2825896126df50c20c12501149453f61069802
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 2,649$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.74 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 60c | 1,346$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.38 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 55c | 1,220$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.5 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…67fbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,191$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.66 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,104$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 70c | 1,103$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.47 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c44…78dbbacked Yes | 39c | 1,041$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 28c | 965.58$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…2f84backed Yes | 27c | 946$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 75c | 879$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.75 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +122.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 79c | 877.8$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.81 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 75c | 812$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes | 28c | 793$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…bbf0backed No | 76c | 760$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 64c | 759$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 66c | 745$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked No | 74c | 722.52$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 77c | 705.92$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.08 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 73c | 694$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…0005backed Yes | 25c | 693$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes | 25c | 678$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 74c | 634$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fa…f3f8backed Yes | 25c | 621$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 73c | 614$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 75c | 603$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c65…d60dbacked Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 34c | 597$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed No | 77c | 578$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.94 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed No | 65c | 576$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed No | 66c | 567$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 556.82$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 35c | 555$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…d83cbacked Yes | 27c | 543.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 76c | 529.03$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a48fbacked No | 74c | 519$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 34c | 510$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed Yes | 25c | 495$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked No | 74c | 491.47$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…0acbbacked No | 74c | 489$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…58ccbacked Yes | 35c | 478$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 73c | 460$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 25c | 457$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 25c | 448$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 72c | 447$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 65c | 447$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 74c | 445$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa355…a3a2backed No | 75c | 435$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.75 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…7de5backed Yes | 25c | 435$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…6411backed Yes | 25c | 433$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 74c | 428$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 418.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 25c | 413.64$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 402.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed No | 75c | 393$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 25c | 387$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed No | 71c | 381$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…ab94backed No | 75c | 369$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 365.26$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.97 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes | 27c | 357$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 25c | 351.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 75c | 344$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 23c | 341$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked No | 73c | 337$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 28c | 337$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked No | 74c | 336$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e7…9bc7backed Yes | 26c | 336$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0895…4ddebacked Yes | 27c | 334$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 64c | 331$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed Yes | 35c | 327$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2e…fe02backed Yes | 25c | 326$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked No | 75c | 326$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked Yes | 25c | 309$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 36c | 308$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 75c | 307$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…747abacked Yes | 40c | 299.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 45c | 297.05$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29e6…b3f2backed Yes | 17c | 289.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 4c | 287.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…5eafbacked No | 64c | 287$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c2…fcbebacked Yes | 36c | 287$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 26c | 282$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed Yes | 39c | 279.62$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…dd28backed No | 29c | 278.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.87 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 23c | 278.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7fda…e430backed Yes | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed Yes | 26c | 268$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 36c | 253$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked No | 75c | 242$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…b341backed Yes | 27c | 238$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 25c | 238$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 75c | 237$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a0…b7bdbacked Yes | 34c | 235$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked Yes | 36c | 233$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed No | 75c | 222$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…3e46backed Yes | 25c | 212$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.