Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89756e94ae36f99533d5ea8eabc576ad0e07d3f88e33ee19b55ba3849989be6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68d5…fea1backed No | 1c | 5,906$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…081bbacked No | 2c | 4,902$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 4,846$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 64c | 4,138$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 70c | 3,944$2,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.94 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,521$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,968.26 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,752$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.65 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…9ac2backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +1,033.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,778$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +1,386.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 71c | 1,726$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…620fbacked No | 1c | 1,287$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 31c | 1,239$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.13 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 48c | 1,005$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 66c | 937.44$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.65 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 32c | 934$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 18cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 12c | 819.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 27c | 787.93$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed Yes | 24c | 770.42$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 6c | 755.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 57c | 694.65$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.46 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…caf5backed No | 26c | 516.33$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 24c | 506.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a7…6e9bbacked Yes | 57c | 472.93$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 51c | 470.51$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.71 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 22c | 399.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…8904backed Yes | 78c | 386.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed No | 77c | 359$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes | 76c | 351.52$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 40c | 350.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 61c | 350$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 5c | 331.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…6ffcbacked Yes | 67c | 310.6$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 301.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 66c | 299.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked No | 19c | 289.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef1…67d3backed Yes | 72c | 278.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…69d8backed No | 50c | 271.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0491…b092backed Yes | 61c | 253.26$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 32c | 250.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed No | 16c | 245.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 6c | 237.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbab1…57eabacked Yes | 22c | 230.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 56c | 205.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 122 | 51.6%63 W · 59 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -6.6wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 196$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 195.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed No | 10c | 185.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…7306backed No | 25c | 167.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…1d53backed Yes | 61c | 163.16$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b2…4486backed Yes | 80c | 162.73$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c98…2dfcbacked No | 19c | 158.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…4a10backed Yes | 64c | 156.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 69c | 137.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…8df1backed Yes | 76c | 128.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 16c | 127.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…3295backed Yes | 34c | 122.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f09…a7b3backed Yes | 72c | 116.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 53c | 113.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed No | 59c | 109.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 36c | 107.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 46c | 106.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe872…fd21backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…2b0abacked Yes | 51c | 98.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 94.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 47c | 93.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 53c | 89.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 71c | 88.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ced…c076backed No | 57c | 87.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…bd5dbacked Yes | 51c | 87.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked No | 59c | 87.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed Yes | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…9783backed Yes | 73c | 84.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 58c | 78.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 41c | 70.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 37c | 70.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd1…1855backed Yes | 73c | 68.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 67c | 61.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 66c | 59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 57.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…8d0fbacked No | 35c | 57.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 77c | 48.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5162…48c1backed Yes | 73c | 46.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…825abacked Yes | 73c | 45.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ab…2899backed Yes | 60c | 43.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 43.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…323fbacked Yes | 61c | 42.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 25c | 40.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8568backed Yes | 76c | 39.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…cbecbacked No | 42c | 35.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df0…9a01backed No | 42c | 33.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…1391backed No | 58c | 32.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed No | 55c | 32.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…85a5backed Yes | 61c | 31.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.