TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$227,086
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$224,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $227,086 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 239 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef37…a179backed Yes30c58,692$17,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,669.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa992…8f7ebacked No70c24,800$17,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,464.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…9d23backed No70c22,500$15,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,772.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31d9…3581backed No70c7,900$5,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26fc…14efbacked No70c3,500$2,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…2d8fbacked Yes62c2,500$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No48c2,351$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.1822750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c2,239$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.77894.5%4 W · 85 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes32c1,241$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.083145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes39c1,189$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.392941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed Yes52c1,111$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.831618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes52c1,110$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.712955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No36c1,103$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.682142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked No80c1,069$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed No72c1,029$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.343951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes32c1,012$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.2939435.3%139 W · 255 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1bf…a751backed Yes21c1,007$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.982157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x334a…832ebacked No36c957$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.571136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x128e…001dbacked No36c936$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.171353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfec…09a7backed No75c934$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.213240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No36c926$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.792347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed Yes64c864$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35d2…6698backed No36c862$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed No80c861$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.062060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+56.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed No80c856$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.22642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x48b2…ea4ebacked Yes64c816$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.421637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked No80c796$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.383250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed Yes64c792$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.31145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked Yes38c762.28$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.983246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+52.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No74c760$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.841855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed No36c760$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.882236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No80c749$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+64.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc32a…7c05backed Yes20c704$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b6…ba85backed Yes64c700$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.61560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes64c693$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.131338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Yes26c690$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked No36c677$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.933033.3%10 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No48c675$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.351241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed No36c670$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.131850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No36c669$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.492948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid+4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x502b…a7a9backed No80c632$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.662638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No76c626$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.492766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+39.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes64c625$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.821241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xddf7…5122backed No73c623$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.59862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+65.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffaf…b675backed No72c610.49$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.741172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No36c605$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.992227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9720…f4d1backed Yes26c600$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.052454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes20c594$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.392528%7 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes32c586$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.522548%12 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed No73c578$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.641145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked Yes52c578$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.722030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes64c577$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.432857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes26c566$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.922450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76fd…e8c4backed No36c555$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.091747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No74c553$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.892556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes20c544$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.83151.6%16 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45ff…bab6backed Yes24c544$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.152259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes41c532$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.22250%11 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes64c522$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.043033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed No80c515$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.032556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d38…e898backed Yes20c511$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.712245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes20c491$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.163256.3%18 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+68.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes64c491$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.261747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed Yes27c490$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.791947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes64c485$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.372450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d4…e1efbacked No36c485$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.37540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed No36c475$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.051782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick51cpaid+76.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes64c475$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.053036.7%11 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9264…3734backed No36c472$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.612050%10 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6b…b341backed Yes52c469$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.351735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes52c467$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.772035%7 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb47e…c824backed Yes64c464$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.03560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No73c459$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.471752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No36c450$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.12937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Yes64c450$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.11233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8507…7f61backed Yes64c449$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No65c445.12$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.392171.4%15 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+19.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes64c439$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.082147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b92…f4c6backed No36c431$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.981844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes27c426$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.592334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63c2…ca53backed No73c416$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.92356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3a0…b7bdbacked No36c416$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed Yes20c410$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.84047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No80c407$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.812450%12 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes27c407$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.482142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed Yes27c405$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.92744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No36c398$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.921861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes22c391$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.82445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes64c389$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.182030%6 W · 14 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7f0…669dbacked No73c381$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.112744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No80c379$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.182850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed No48c374$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.232352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed No36c373$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.971181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick58cpaid+52%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed Yes20c371$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.22060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed Yes28c363$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73df…ba67backed Yes64c362$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.961540%6 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b5…4ca3backed No36c355$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.491861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+35.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes20c350$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.352653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+55.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No48c347$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.792951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed No50c346$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.78650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.