TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will the Miami Heat win more than 37.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,018

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,018 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,461$21 inLost-$21.051,13217%192 W · 940 L+2.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48e…7708backed No7c655.88$46 inLost-$46.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x09be…76d5backed No10c487$48 inLost-$48.212556%14 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed No4c399$17 inLost-$17.063240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No8c358$30 inLost-$30.344235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No9c333$30 inLost-$29.642751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No4c302.01$13 inLost-$13.2894.5%4 W · 85 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed No5c267$12 inLost-$12.022948.3%14 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No5c263$13 inLost-$12.622025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1c…7406backed No4c235$10 inLost-$10.34650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No5c229$11 inLost-$11.452040%8 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes66c190$126 inWon+$64.412951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes52c138$72 inWon+$66.2422750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x941a…90c4backed No29c138$41 inLost-$40.691618.8%3 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.22per pick41cpaid-70.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No12c118.68$15 inLost-$14.76934.8%24 W · 45 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-31.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No28c112.74$32 inLost-$31.545313.2%7 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-68.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4e…6533backed No10c106$10 inLost-$10.491040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293b…09a9backed No34c73$25 inLost-$24.752642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No48c60$29 inLost-$28.818536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Yes44c40$18 inWon+$22.417148%82 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b7…0e35backed No56c30$17 inLost-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.