NBA · resolved market

Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddf9828c791bb39ed1ba212da04fc2ee3f275dd8be22f334b030cc0f021ba9d5

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,655 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes	9c	576.01$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$523.34	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+62.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes	53c	500$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No	7c	444$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	48	43.8%21 W · 27 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes	29c	427.89$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.82	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No	41c	420$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.1	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked No	44c	382$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.98	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed No	10c	374$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…d51bbacked No	44c	355$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.2	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…aff0backed No	47c	336$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.92	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.6wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+143.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1dfd…946bbacked Yes	33c	321$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.07	31	41.9%13 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x159f…333fbacked Yes	5c	302$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.9	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+270.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde2b…73a0backed Yes	56c	296$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.24	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked Yes	52c	293$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.64	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed No	48c	292$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.16	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes	7c	281$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.33	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+4.3wins	+0.21per pick	32cpaid	+209.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No	11c	274$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No	70c	244$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.73	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No	21c	230$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.17	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes	55c	216$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.2	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed No	16c	214$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-4.7wins	-0.25per pick	51cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes	5c	214$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.3	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bbb…5c80backed No	62c	210$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.39	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-54%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa355…a3a2backed Yes	5c	203$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.85	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	36cpaid	+124.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7410…ad32backed Yes	17c	196$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.68	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7775…6cb4backed No	67c	184$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.28	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+167.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f58…e29abacked Yes	33c	178$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.26	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes	18c	177$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.14	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+117%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No	47c	177$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.06	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes	15c	176$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.6	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked No	67c	174$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.58	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed No	46c	171$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.66	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed Yes	52c	164$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.72	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.22per pick	49cpaid	+60%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed Yes	56c	162$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.28	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes	49c	153$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.03	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed Yes	33c	152$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.84	33	57.6%19 W · 14 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No	51c	141$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.91	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes	54c	131$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.26	15	73.3%11 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd502…4974backed Yes	12c	130$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.4	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No	51c	128$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.28	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x993c…eae0backed Yes	49c	128$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.28	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…7bd2backed No	16c	121$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked No	51c	119$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.69	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadd8…8f4bbacked No	67c	116$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.72	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	22c	108.79$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.43	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f52…a35abacked Yes	12c	107$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.16	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Yes	49c	106$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.06	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed No	16c	105$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	20	50%10 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b71…f1d9backed No	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No	13c	98.29$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.62	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+4.0wins	+0.19per pick	52cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x750b…7a65backed Yes	15c	98$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.44	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed Yes	33c	92$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.64	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes	49c	88$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.88	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes	54c	87$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.67	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed Yes	75c	86$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.86	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c57…c2e0backed Yes	56c	84$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked Yes	33c	82$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.94	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	-3.8wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No	51c	72$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.72	33	39.4%13 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x282e…3eaabacked Yes	49c	71$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.21	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.7wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+47%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes	56c	68$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.92	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes	78c	65.78$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.35	182	46.7%85 W · 97 L	+7.6wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab6d…92b3backed Yes	33c	65$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd320…81a5backed No	67c	63$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.21	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No	67c	62$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.54	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd9b…b6aabacked Yes	51c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.6	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.06per pick	42cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	17c	59.67$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.53	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	+24.4wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+60.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No	51c	55$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes	49c	51$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.01	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+5.3wins	+0.31per pick	51cpaid	+76.4%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked No	44c	49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.15per pick	44cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed Yes	56c	49$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.56	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No	28c	46$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	227	50.2%114 W · 113 L	+24.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed Yes	54c	41$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.86	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6d…c063backed Yes	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	36cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes	33c	37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.79	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed No	67c	33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-2.1wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed No	67c	32$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.44	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+65.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed No	44c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa232…175fbacked No	51c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+63.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	72c	24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.72	132	40.2%53 W · 79 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes	72c	22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.16	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No	49c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Phoenix Suns win more than 30.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event